利用馬可夫鏈來解決生產排程不穩定的問題－以R公司為例

Use the Markov Chain to Solve the Problem of the Production Schedule-Base on the Case of R Corporation

10.6495/CIMBM.2015.015

洪啟訓(Chi-Hsun Hung)；王超弘(Chau-Hung Wang)

馬可夫鏈 ； 生產排程 ； 總體規劃 ； 平穩化生產 ； Markov Chain ； Production schedule ； Aggregate planning ； Smooth production

科際整合管理研討會

2015第18屆（2015 / 06 / 07）

214 - 229

繁體中文

許多製造廠常無法讓生產排程穩定，主因多為零件材料採購無足夠前置時間，導致供應商無法準時交貨。本研究以個案R公司為例進行研究並試著解決生產排程的問題。首先用馬可夫鏈找出訂單數量的穩定狀態機率後，再利用預測模型推算每月訂單數量並做趨勢分析。為使生產平穩與降低成本，以總體規劃與平穩化生產模式決定最佳每月生產數量，然後以此數量進行零件材料採購與安全庫存量設定。最後本研究結果已經應用在R公司實際生產作業，證實可以解決生產排程不穩定的問題。

Many factories often cannot make production schedule stably. Most of reasons are that they do not have enough lead time to purchase parts and materials and their suppliers hardly deliver goods on time. In this research, the R Company case will be studied and tried to solve this problem. First, use Markov Chain to find the steady-state probabilities of volumes to be ordered. Then, use the forecasting model to predict the volume of order monthly and make trend analysis. In order to make production smoothly and reduce cost, use the aggregate planning and the smooth production model to determine the best monthly production quantity. Then, this quantity will be used to purchase parts and materials and set the volume of safety stock. Finally, the result of this study has been applied to the actual production of the R Company, and been verified that it can solve the problem of unstable production schedule.