臺灣勞動市場情勢指數之編製研究

The Compilation of Labor Market Condition Index for Taiwan

彭素玲(Su-Ling Peng)；吳慧娜(Hui-Na Wu)；郭迺鋒(Nai-Feng Guo)；郭盈旻(Ying-Min Guo)

勞動市場情勢指數 ； 主成分分析 ； 因子分析 ； 動態因子模型 ； 綜合指標 ； Labor Market Condition Index(LMCI) ； Principal components ； Factor analysis ； Dynamic Factor Model(DFM)

勞動及職業安全衛生研究季刊

26卷3期（2018 / 09 / 15）

198 - 214

繁體中文

由於全球化趨勢以及國際化專業分工潮流，全球景氣循環週期呈現震盪幅度加劇且國際之間彼此交互影響日深情勢；勞動市場情勢則因景氣循環震盪、新就業型式和分包、外包的迅速成長，普遍存在無就業復甦（Jobless Recovery）及非典型就業（Atypical Employees）現象，致使單一指標無法全面反映市場情勢全貌，通常需要透過多種指標或編製各式綜合指數以真確反應市場脈動。為明瞭並掌握勞動市場情勢，在此除參採國際機構有關之勞動指標以及國內現有官方發布統計資料外，並以實證模型（包括因子分析及動態因子模型）加以建構、編製臺灣勞動市場情勢指數。實證結果萃取臺灣勞動市場之四個關鍵面向指標，分別為「趨勢動能指數」，主要呈現市場需求及勞動市場能量等；「報酬與福利」，主要反映薪資高低與相關福利變化（包含工時等）；「供需調節活躍指數」：反映與勞動市場效能有關的變數，體現臺灣勞動市場之「量」、「價」調整；及「勞動投入」等四個關鍵因子。而透過相關之雷達圖等編製及不同時期之指數值得分高低，可比對於不同時點相關指數對於國內勞動情勢之動態趨勢變化；且若以編製之臺灣勞動市場情勢指數臺灣 Labor Market Condition Index（臺灣LMCI）與Fed編製之美國LMCI指數，可發現對應指標之間具有高度連結，據此並可評估國際勞動市場之變化對國內勞動市場之可能影響，除可作為國內勞動市場之先期前瞻預測指標之外，透過即時掌握臺灣勞動市場之情勢變化，並可作為相關政策規劃之基礎與參考。

Due to the trends of globalization and specialized, the volatility of global economic cycle increases and countries affect each other more deeply. In addition to this, the labor market conditions seems more complicated and diversified owing to the popularities in new types of employment and subcontracting, outsourcing, and the widespread in jobless recovery and atypical employees in labor market; therefore, it is difficult to use single indicator to capture the true situations for the labor market. In order to understand and grasp the labor market condition, we attempt to draw up the labor market condition index by referring to indicators released by the international institutes such as ILO's KILM and the statistics posted by officials in Taiwan. We employ the empirical models, including factor analysis and dynamic factor models (DFM), to construct and establish Taiwan Labor Market Condition Index which is named in LMCI-Taiwan. The empirical results extract four key factors which are named as ＂Trend Dynamic Index＂, mainly presents the momentums for market demand; ＂Compensation and Benefits＂, mainly reflects salary level and benefit changes (including hours of duty); ＂Active Adjustment of Supply and Demand Index＂, mainly reflects the variables of labor market efficiency, and presents the adjustment in quantity and price for Taiwan labor market; and the last one is ＂Labor Input＂. By means of establishing radar chart and interpreting index scores in different periods, we can compare the corresponding index scores to traces the dynamic tracks and the true labor market condition. In addition, to investigate the LMCI-Taiwan with Fed’s LMCI, we can find these indexes have highly correlated. Therefore, we can assess the possible impacts on domestic labor market as the international labor market changed. Besides, by grasping the change in LMCI-Taiwan, it can not only be applied as a forecasting indicator in domestic labor market, but also can be used as the foundation and references for related policies.

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