海岸防護

10.6653/MoCICHE.201710_44(5).0006

吳鴻業

土木水利

44卷5期（2017 / 10 / 01）

42 - 47

繁體中文

台灣四面環海，海岸防護工程昂貴，本文強調運用績效評估概念，完成整體多目標性的計劃區現況和未來五十年後狀況的可行性評估，以及運用風險和未確定性分析的概念和方法計算颱風暴潮位，考慮颱風控制參數的聯合機率，建立合成颱風，運用颱風暴潮和波浪的電腦數值模式，模擬暴潮偏差和波揚，並結合高潮位的發生機率，運用蒙地卡羅統計方法，推算暴潮偏差、波揚和設計暴潮位的重現期。雙颱、颱風和季風、颱風和強降雨的共伴效應，以及颱風漂砂模擬也可運用此概念和方法調加控制參數運算。颱風暴潮、波浪、溢淹範圍和程度，以及海嘯的預警模式，包含其未確定性範圍和程度，應儘早建立，並配合通當的疏散計劃，以保障沿岸居民的安全和減少生命財產損失，如此便可建立一個軟硬體兼具的完整有效的海岸防護工作。

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