結合空間推論與天候資料佈設坡地崩塌預警系統感測器（邊坡種子）之初探

10.6653/MoCICHE.202202_49(1).0003

許瑋庭；郭佩棻；陳佑；張大緯；李威勳

邊坡種子 ； 空間推論 ； 克利金法 ； 邊坡崩塌

土木水利

49卷1期（2022 / 02 / 01）

10 - 20

繁體中文

降雨型邊坡崩塌為全球主要災害之一。極端氣候、頻繁天災與人為不當開發，如賀伯颱風及921大地震，導致邊坡災害頻傳，而設置相關預警系統逐漸受到各界重視。目前預警系統多以大範圍地質概況、短時間強降雨及長時間累積雨量建立門檻值。然而，超過60%的邊坡災害在低於降雨門檻值下發生，難以達到有效預警功能。本研究先使用空間推論技術及鄰近雨量觀測站資料，推估研究區內雨量大小。再以GIS系統將降雨高風險區，結合敏感地質與邊坡災害清單，決定實驗區域。最後以場址特性與邊坡位移預測值，將感測器及通訊結點分群後最佳配置以預測風險。後續可透過邊坡種子蒐集實際邊坡崩塌位移量，並套疊交通路網與社經資料（如人口與老年比）評估影響範圍與族群，提供地方政府疏散資訊。

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