影響中華職棒觀眾人數因素之探討（2011－2015）

Study of Assessing Recreation Potential in the Tributaries of Shihmen Reservoir

翁培文(Weng, Pei-Wen)

中華職棒 ； 觀眾人數 ； 多元廻歸 ； Chinese Professional Baseball League ； Attendance ； Multiple Regression Analysis

休憩管理研究

5卷1期（2018 / 08 / 01）

25 - 40

繁體中文

中華職棒是台灣最盛行的職業運動，而觀眾是職棒能否長久經營的關鍵。過去在研究職棒進場觀眾人數時，大都以外部因素為主，包括：時間、戰績、天氣、球場等，透過多元廻歸分析，探討這些因素對觀眾人數的影響。類似的研究國外頗多，中職相關的研究較少，使用的變項也較少。本研究以2011－2015年中華職棒例行賽的進場觀眾人數為研究對象，從文獻整理出上百個因素後，從中挑選並新增部份因素，使用的自變項約50個。多元迴歸分析的相關係數.882，調整過後的R平方.768，部份因素在MLB有顯著的影響，在中華職業則否，如：人口數、公仔，部份因素在MLB與中華職棒的影響皆然，如：月份、星期，部份因素為中華職棒所特有，如：2013WBC、Manny效應。

Chinese Professional Baseball League is the most popular professional sport in Taiwan. However, whether professional baseball industry could keep long-term sustainability depends on the audience. Before, researches in the attendance numbers of professional baseball were mainly based on external factors, including timing, standings, weather, locations, etc. The researches might be conducted with the use of multiple regression analysis to inquire into how these factors would influence attendance numbers. There have been a great many relevant researches abroad, while the ones related to Chinese Professional Baseball League(CPBL) are rather fewer. This leads to the fact that available independent variables are fewer as well. The timeline of this research lasts from 2011 to 2015, evaluating the attendance numbers of the regular seasons of CPBL. Hundreds of factors have been sorted out from documentaries, while several new factors have Graduate Student, Department of Geography, National Taiwan Normal University been added to the selected ones. As the result, there have been about 50 independent variables adopted in examination. The correlation coefficient is calculated as .882, with an adjusted R-squared of .768. Some of the factors have had a significant influence on MLB, but are not suitable for CPBL (e.g., population and bobblehead promotion). Some other factors reveal the same results (e.g., months of the year and days of the week), while some are exclusive to CPBL only (e.g., 2013WBC and Manny Ramirez effect).

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