中国劳动力供给趋势与经济增长前景

The trend of China's labor supply and the prospect of economic growth

10.6673/TWLERSP.201510.0015

刘尔铎

劳动力供给 ； 经济增长 ； 人口红利 ； 人口老龄化 ； labor supply ； economic growth ； demographic dividend ； aged tendency of population

勞動與就業關係學術研討會論文集

2015年（2015 / 10 / 15）

151 - 157

簡體中文

自20世纪90年代以来，中国人口出生率开始出现了较大幅度的下降。长期的低生育率加剧了人口的老龄化，使得中国劳动年龄人口数量近年来出现了下降趋势。中国的劳动力供给格局正发生历史性转变。论文分析了中国劳动力供给趋势的变化及其原因，讨论了中国的劳动力供给趋势与经济增长前景，并结合中国人口结构和劳动力供给的现状，提出了相应的政策建议。

From 1990s the birth rate of the Chinese population began to decline significantly. The long-term low fertility rate has increased the aging of the population, making the number of labor age population in China declined in recent years. China's labor supply pattern is undergoing a historic change. This paper analyzes the changes of China's labor supply and its causes, discusses the trend of China's labor supply and economic growth prospects, and combined with the current situation of China's population structure and labor supply, puts forward the corresponding policy recommendations.