题名

Coping with Uncertainty: Cost-Benefit Analysis, the Precautionary Principle, and Climate Change

作者

Daniel A. Farber

关键词

Human Health and Welfare

期刊名称

台灣國際法學刊

卷期/出版年月

16卷2期（2020 / 07 / 01）

页次

121 - 189

内容语文

英文
中文摘要

Climate scientists are confident that greenhouse gases are causing climate change, but it is difficult to predict the severity of future climate change or its local impacts. Unfortunately, we cannot wait for these uncertainties to be resolved before addressing the issue of climate change. Policymakers use two different strategies for setting climate policy in the face of this uncertainty: cost-benefit analysis and the precautionary principle. Although there has been much discussion of these strategies in the abstract, there has been less effort to assess them in operation. This Article analyzes these strategies and considers their application to climate risks in four case studies: determination of the social cost of carbon, international endorsement of a 2°C ceiling on warming, the Environmental Protection Agency's endangerment finding, and the polar bear listing decision. The precautionary principle requires that feasible steps be taken to control risks in the face of uncertainty. This proposal works well in determining whether to regulate, but gives limited guidance about the appropriate level of regulation. Cost-benefit analysis of climate change is designed to determine the level of regulation, but it also encounters difficulties. Cost-benefit analysts must quantify the harm created by carbon emissions, which can be difficult because of uncertainty about the extent of the impact. Economists are also unsure how to take into account the large time-scale of climate change. Thus both approaches have their problems in practice. There are some possible ways of combining economic analysis and the precautionary principle, but these have not yet been used in practice. In the meantime, the four case studies indicate that decision makers have managed to make reasonably defensible decisions despite the obstacles.
主题分类 社會科學 > 法律學
参考文献
  1. Organization, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, http://ipcc.ch/organization/organization.shtml (last visited Oct. 21, 2015).
  2. Babbitt v. Sweet Home Chapter of Cmtys. for a Great Or., 515 U.S. 687, 690 (1995).
  3. Endangerment and Cause or Contribute Findings for Greenhouse Gases Under Section 202(a) of the Clean Air Act, 74 Fed. Reg. 66,497, 66,514, 66,524 (Dec. 15, 2009) (to be codified at 40 C.F.R. pt. 1).
  4. Over 120,000 Stand Up for a Social Cost of Carbon, Envtl. Def. Fund (Feb. 26, 2014), http://www.edf.org/media/over-120000-stand-social-cost-carbon
  5. 665 F.3d 1015, 1025-1026 (9th Cir. 2011).
  6. Massachusetts, 549 U.S. at 513, 516-26, 528-35, 549 (Scalia, J., dissenting)
  7. U.S. Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions, U.S. Energy Info. Admin., http://www.eia.gov/environment/emissions/carbon/ (last visited Oct. 21, 2015).
  8. 549 U.S. 497, 505 (2007).
  9. 684 F.3d 102, 113, 119, 120-126 (D.C. Cir. 2012).
  10. The website for FUND is FUND - Climate Framework for Uncertainty, Negotiation and Distribution, http://www.fund-model.org/ (last visited Dec. 1, 2015).
  11. Earth's CO2 Home Page, CO2Now.org, http://co2now.org/current-co2/co2-now/ (last visited Oct. 21, 2015)
  12. Mercedez-Benz C-Class Sedan, Car & Driver, http://www.caranddriver.com/mercedes-benz/c-class/pricing/options (last visited Oct. 21, 2015).
  13. Discounted Present Value Calculator, Aqua-calc, http://www.aqua-calc.com/page/discounted-present-value-calculator (last visited Oct. 21, 2015).
  14. (2011).Responsibilities and Obligations of States Sponsoring Persons and Entities with Respect to Activities in the Area, Case No. 17, Advisory Opinion of Feb. 1, 2011.ITLOS Rep,2011,135.
  15. Utility Air Regulatory Group v. EPA, __ U.S. __, 134 S. Ct. 2427 (2014).
  16. Interagency Working Grp. on Soc. Cost of Carbon, Technical Support Document: Social Cost of Carbon for Regulatory Impact Analysis Under Executive Order 12866, at 1, 3-11+14+16-23+25+28-29+32-33 (2010) [hereinafter Interagency Working Group], available at http://www3.epa.gov/otaq/climate/regulations/scc-tsd.pdf
  17. 16 U.S.C. § 1531 (2012), § 1533(a)., § 1532(6)., 1532(20)., § 1533(b)(1)(A)., § 1536(a)(2), § 1538(a)(1), § 1538(d)(1), § 1533(d), § 1532(20)
  18. 538 F.3d 1172, 1198, 1200-1203 (9th Cir. 2008).
  19. Ctr. for Biological Diversity v. Badgley, 335 F.3d 1097, 1101 (9th Cir. 2003)
  20. United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change art. 2, art. 3(3), May 9, 1992, 1771 U.N.T.S. 107.
  21. United Nations Climate Change Conference, Cancun, Mex., Nov. 29-Dec. 10, 2010, Decision 1/CP.16, The Cancun Agreements: Outcome of the Work of the Ad Hoc Working Group on Long-term Cooperative Action Under the Convention, P 4, U.N. Doc. No. FCCC/CP/2010/7/Add.1 (Dec. 10-11, 2010), available at http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2010/cop16/eng/07a01.pdf# page=4
  22. In re Polar Bear , 709 F.3d 1, 8-9, 12-16 (D.C. Cir. 2013).
  23. 42 U.S.C. § 7521(a)(1) (2012).
  24. N.M. Cattle Growers Ass'n v. U.S. Fish & Wildlife Servs., 248 F.3d 1277, 1282 (10th Cir. 2001)
  25. Abouchar, Juli(2002).The Precautionary Principle in Canada: The First Decade.Envtl. L. Rep.,32,11407.
  26. Ackerman, Frank,Heinzerling, Lisa(2004).Priceless: On Knowing the Price of Everything and the Value of Nothing.
  27. Ackerman, Frank,Munitz, Charles(2012).Climate Damages in the FUND Model: A Disaggregated Analysis.Ecological Econ.,77,219-224.
  28. Adler, Jonathan H.(2000).More Sorry than Safe: Assessing the Precautionary Principle and the Proposed International Biosafety Protocol.Tex. Int'l L.J.,35,173+194-198.
  29. Adler, Jonathan H.(ed.)(2011).Rebuilding the Ark: New Perspectives on Endangered Species Act Reform.
  30. Adler, Matthew D.(ed.),Posner, Eric A.(ed.)(2001).Philosophical, and Legal Perspectives.
  31. Allen, Myles(2007).Scientific Challenges in the Attribution of Harm to Human Influences on Climate.U. Pa. L. Rev.,155,1353-1361+1375.
  32. Allhoff, Fritz(2009).Risk, Precaution, and Emerging Technologies.Stud. Ethics L. & Tech.,3,1-23.
  33. Archer, David,Rahmstorf, Stefan(2010).The Climate Crisis: An Introductory Guide to Climate Change.
  34. Burke, Marshall(2015).Global Non-Linear Effect of Temperature on Economic Production.Nature
  35. Carlarne, Cinnamon(ed.)(2014).Oxford Handbook of International Climate Change Law.
  36. Carothers, Leslie(2014).Upholding EPA Regulation of Greenhouse Gases: The Precautionary Principle Redux.Ecology L.Q.,41,683-735.
  37. Ceballos, Gerardo(2015).Accelerated Modern Human-Induced Species Losses: Entering the Sixth Mass Extinction.Sci. Advances,1,2-5.
  38. Charest, Stephen(2002).Bayesian Approaches to the Precautionary Principle.Duke Envtl. L. & Pol'y F.,12,265.
  39. Jerry Coffey, Surface Area of the Earth, Universe Today (Feb. 18, 2009), http://www.universetoday.com/25756/surface-area-of-the-earth/
  40. Cole, Daniel H.(2007)."Best Practice" Standards for Regulatory Benefit Cost Analysis.Res. L. & Econ.,23(1)
  41. Cole, Daniel H.(2008).The Stern Review and Its Critics: Implications for Theory and Practice of Cost-Benefit Analysis.Nat. Resources J.,48(1)
  42. Craig, Robin Kundis(ed.),Deketelaere, Kurt(ed.),Makuch, Zen(ed.)(2012).Comparative Ocean Governance: Place-Based Protection in an Era of Climate Change.
  43. Cross, Frank B.(1996).Paradoxical Perils of the Precautionary Principle.Wash. & Lee L. Rev.,53,851-872.
  44. Cullen, Heidi(2010).The Weather of the Future: Heat Waves, Extreme Storms, and Other Scenes from a Climate-Changed Planet.
  45. Dana, David(2009).The Contextual Rationality of the Precautionary Principle.Queen's L.J.,35,67+74-81.
  46. Deschenes, Olivier,Greenstone, Michael(2007).The Economic Impacts of Climate Change: Evidence from Agricultural Output and Random Fluctuations in Weather.Am. Econ. Rev.,96,354-377+381.
  47. Driesen, David M.(2013).Cost-Benefit Analysis and the Precautionary Principle: Can They Be Reconciled?.Mich. St. L. Rev.,2013,771-773+780-782+791+795+801+803-804.
  48. EPA, Regulatory Impact Analysis for the Proposed Carbon Pollution Guidelines for Existing Power Plants and Emission Standards for Modified and Reconstructed Power Plants, at ES-18 tbl.ES-6, ES-21 tbl.ES-8, ES-20 (2014), available at http://www2.epa.gov/ sites/production/files/2014-06/documents/20140602ria-clean-power-plan.pdf
  49. EPA(2015).,未出版
  50. Farber, Daniel(2011).Uncertainty.Geo. L.J.,99,901+940-946.
  51. Farber, Daniel(1999).Eco-Pragmatism: Making Sensible Environmental Decisions in an Uncertain World.
  52. Farber, Daniel A.(2016).Taking Costs into Account: Mapping the Boundaries of Judicial and Agency Discretion.Harv. Envtl. L. Rev.
  53. Farber, Daniel A.(2008).Modeling Climate Change and Its Impacts: Law, Policy, and Science.Tex. L. Rev.,86,1655-1661.
  54. Farber, Daniel A.(2008).A Place-Based Theory of Standing.UCLA L. Rev.,55,1505.
  55. Giglio, Megan(2011).Hamburg Univ. & Ctr. Marine & Atmospheric Sci., Working PaperHamburg Univ. & Ctr. Marine & Atmospheric Sci., Working Paper,未出版
  56. Giglio, Stefano(2015).,未出版
  57. Gollier, Christian(2000).Scientific Progress and Irreversibility: An Economic Interpretation of the "Precautionary Principle".J. Pub. Econ.,75,229.
  58. Rich Green, Petagrams of Carbon, Blogspot: How It Looks from Here (July 9, 2011), http://how-it-looks.blogspot.com/2011/07/petagrams-of-carbon.html
  59. Greenstone, Michael(2013).Developing a Social Cost of Carbon for US Regulatory Analysis: A Methodology and Interpretation.Rev. Envtl. Econ. & Pol'y,7,23+40-42.
  60. Guzman, Andrew(2013).Overheated: The Human Cost of Climate Change.
  61. Hahn, Robert W.,Ritz, Robert A.(2015).Does the Social Cost of Carbon Matter?.J. Legal Stud.,44,229+236-237.
  62. Hardin, Don Bradford, Jr.(2008).Why Cost-Benefit Analysis? A Question (and Some Answers) About the Legal Academy.Ala. L. Rev.,59,1135-1136.
  63. Heinzerling, Lisa(2008).Climate Change, Human Health, and the Post-Cautionary Principle.Geo. L.J.,96,445.
  64. Hope, Chris(2010).,未出版
  65. Hourcade, J.C.(1996).Estimating the Costs of Mitigating Greenhouse Gases.Climate Change 1995: Economic and Social Dimensions of Climate Change
  66. Hunter, David(2002).International Environmental Law and Policy.
  67. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(2014).Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change.
  68. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(2014).Climate 2014: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability.
  69. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(2007).Climate Change, Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis.
  70. Laurie Johnson, The Social Cost of Carbon: Playing Catch Up to the IPCC, NRDC Switchboard (Apr. 22, 2014), http://switchboard.nrdc.org/blogs/ljohnson/ the_social_cost_of_carbon_ play.html
  71. Johnston, Delavane B.(2015).Stanford Univ., Working PaperStanford Univ., Working Paper,未出版
  72. Johnston, Jason S.(2015).Va. Pub. Law & Legal Theory Research Paper; Va. Law & Econ. Research PaperVa. Pub. Law & Legal Theory Research Paper; Va. Law & Econ. Research Paper,未出版
  73. Kerr, Richard A.(2010).Models Foresee More-Intense Hurricanes in the Greenhouse.Science,327,399.
  74. Kysar, Douglas A.(2006).It Might Have Been: Risk, Precaution, and Opportunity Costs.J. Land Use & Envtl. L.,22,1+5+14-16+25+31.
  75. Luttrell, Melissa J.(2014).The Social Cost of Inertia: How Cost-Benefit Incoherence Threatens to Derail U.S. Climate Policy.Duke Envtl. L. & Pol'y F.,25,131+170-183.
  76. Lyman, Eric J.(2015).Climate Negotiators Mark Movement on Temperature Goal.Bloomberg BNA,Dec. 4
  77. Mandell, Gregory N.,Gathii, James Thuo(2006).Cost-Benefit Analysis Versus the Precautionary Principle: Beyond Cass Sunstein's Laws of Fear.U. Ill. L. Rev.,2006,1037.
  78. Masur, Jonathan S.,Posner, Eric A.(2011).Climate Regulation and the Limits of Cost-Benefit Analysis.Calif. L. Rev.,99,1557-1561+1563+1581-1585+1596-1597+1599.
  79. Matthew, H. Damon(2009).The Proportionality of Global Warming to Cumulative Carbon Emissions.Nature,459,829.
  80. Montgomery, W. David,Smith, Anne E.(2000).Global Climate Change and the Precautionary Principle.Hum. & Ecological Risk Assessment,6,399.
  81. Nash, Jonathan Remy(2008).Standing and the Precautionary Principle.Colum. L. Rev.,108,494-499-500+502-503.
  82. Steven C. Newbold, U.S. EPA, Nat'l Ctr. for Envtl. Econ., Summary of the DICE Model 1, 2, 4 (2010), available at http://yosemite.epa.gov/ee/epa/eerm.nsf/vwAN/EE-0564-114.pdf/$file/EE-0564-114.pdf
  83. Nordhaus, William(2013).The Climate Casino: Risk, Uncertainty, and Economics for a Warming Worl.
  84. Nordhaus, William D.,Boyer, Joseph G.(2000).Warming the World: Economic Models of Global Warming.
  85. Owen, Dave(2012).Critical Habitat and the Challenge of Regulating Small Harms.Fla. L. Rev.,64,141-146.
  86. Owen, David G.(2010).Bending Nature, Bending Law.Fla. L. Rev.,62,569-575.
  87. Parson, Edward A.(2007).The Big One: A Review of Richard Posner's Catastrophe: Risk and Response.J. Econ. Literature,45,147-152.
  88. Pindyck, Robert(2015).Mass. Inst. Tech., Working PaperMass. Inst. Tech., Working Paper,未出版
  89. Posner, Eric A.,Weisbach, David(2010).Climate Change Justice.
  90. Primack, Richard(2010).Essentials of Conservation Biology.
  91. Revesz, Richard L.,Livermore, Michael A.(2008).Retaking Rationale: How Cost-Benefit Analysis Can Better Protect the Environment and Our Health.
  92. Rowell, Arden(2014).Time in Cost-Benefit Analysis.U.C. Irvine L. Rev.,4,1215.
  93. Ruhl, J.B.(2008).Climate Change and the Endangered Species Act: Building Bridges to the No-Analog Future.B.U. L. Rev.,88(1),33+43-44.
  94. Sachs, Noah M.(2011).Rescuing the Strong Precautionary Principle from Its Critics.U. Ill. L. Rev.,2011,1285+1307-1311+1316-1325.
  95. Salzman, James,Thompson, Barton H., Jr.(2014).Environmental Law and Policy.
  96. Darren Samuelsohn, Climate: Uncertain Economic Models Create Headaches for Senate Panel, Env't & Energy Daily 1, 2 (Oct. 14, 2009), available at http://www.eenews.net/Greenwire/2009/10/14/archive/5?terms=Climate%3A+Uncertain+Economic+Models+Create+Headaches+for+Senate+Panel
  97. Schlenker, Wolfram(2006).The Impact of Global Warming on U.S. Agriculture: An Econometric Analysis of Optimal Growing Conditions.Rev. Econ. & Stat.,88,113+122-124.
  98. Seney, Erin(2013).Climate Change, Marine Environments, and the U.S. Endangered Species Act.Conservation Biology,27,1138-1143.
  99. Squillace, Mark,Hood, Alexander(2012).NEPA and Climate Change.Envtl. L.,42,469-516.
  100. Stern, Nicholas(2007).The Economics of Climate Change: The Stern Review.
  101. Stern, Nicholas(2013).The Structure of Economic Modeling of the Potential Impacts of Climate Change: Grafting Gross Underestimation of Risk onto Already Narrow Science Models.J. Econ. Persp.,51,838-841+843-845.
  102. Stirling, Jay G.(2015).How to Deal with Hornets: The Administrative Procedure Act and the Social Cost of Carbon.Iowa L. Rev.,100,853+855-856.
  103. Stocker, T.F.(ed.)(2013).Climate Change, Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis.
  104. Stone, Christopher D.(2001).Is There a Precautionary Principle?.Envtl. L. Rep.,31,10790-10792.
  105. Sunstein, Cass R.(2013).Commentary, The Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs: Myths and Realities.Harv. L. Rev.,126,1838.
  106. Sunstein, Cass R.(2002).Probability Neglect: Emotions, Worst Cases, and Law.Yale L.J.,112,61+93-94.
  107. Sunstein, Cass R.(2003).Beyond the Precautionary Principle.U. Pa. L. Rev.,151,1003+1007-1008+1053.
  108. Sunstein, Cass R.(2007).The Catastrophic Harm Precautionary Principle.Issues Legal Scholarship,6,1+28-29.
  109. Tol, Richard S.J.(2005).The Marginal Damage Costs of Carbon Dioxide Emissions: An Assessment of the Uncertainties.Energy Pol'y,33,2064-2071+2073.
  110. Tol, Richard S.J.(2014).Quantifying the Consensus on Anthropogenic Global Warming in the Literature: A Re-Analysis.Energy Pol'y,73,701.
  111. Toulmin, Stephen(1988).The Case for Cosmic Prudence.Tenn. L. Rev.,56,29.
  112. Traeger, Christian P.(2015).Ctr. for Econ. Studies & Info Inst., Working PaperCtr. for Econ. Studies & Info Inst., Working Paper,未出版
  113. United Nations Conference on Environment and Development(1992).United Nations Conference on Environment and Development, Rio de Janeiro, Braz., June 3-14, 1992, Rio Declaration on Environment and Development, U.N. Doc. No. A/CONF.151/26/Rev.1 (Vol. I), Annex I, princ. 15 (Aug. 12, 1992)..
  114. Wagner, Gernot,Weitzman, Martin L.(2015).Climate Shock: The Economic Consequences of a Hotter Planet.
  115. Weitzman, Martin L.(1998).Why the Far-Distant Future Should Be Discounted at Its Lowest Possible Rate.J. Envtl. Econ. & Mgmt.,36,201.
  116. World Bank(2012).,未出版
  117. Zinn, Matthew D.(2007).Adapting to Climate Change: Environmental Law in a Warmer World.Ecology L.Q.,34,61-73.
print cancel