中美脫鉤與全球供應鏈重組－高科技管制、產業標準的競合與企業經營策略

On strategic use of Co-opetition and industrial standard in the hi-tech sector: the need to restructure global supply chains by relevant players amid US-China decoupling and Post COVID-19

盧信昌(Hsin Chang Lu)

心志一同的價值鏈 ； 競合策略 ； 產業標準 ； 中美脫鉤 ； 逆全球化 ； Like-minded Value Chain ； Co-opetition ； Industrial Standard ； US-CHINA Decoupling ； De-globalization

科際整合月刊

9卷9期（2024 / 09 / 25）

23 - 33

繁體中文;英文

比對美國政府部門的記者會、國安咨文報告與2020年總統大選期間的競選文宣，本文嘗試梳理其論旨的異同；尤其會對國際企業布局與全球供應鏈的可能衝擊。進一層，則要探討企業決策與產業調整，包括在工業標準的跨國分隔、群聚效應被迫做成的地理重組與消費市場的分流，最終針對渠等的戰略思考，可推演的參考依據、關鍵衝擊、決策因素和做成應對的必要調適。

The current response by main countries to the crisis of Covid-9 is to double down whatever methods adopted during the financial tsunami occurred between 2007 and 2009. Nonetheless, the overshooting of financial markets worldwide as well as a rapid increase of corporate cash reserves may indicate the opposite. Recently the sharp rise in yields and increasing inflation expectations forced the Federal Reserve (FED) to change tone over monetary stimulus. Compared to last crisis, the contrast then and now shows the lack of physical investment and collective fiscal expansion willingly, both at the country level and by key companies. That businesses may interact under "co-opetition", taking simultaneously competitive and cooperative activities, was recognized formally near the end of the 20th century. A further complication to most multinational firms is the chance for US-CHINA decoupling throughout the crisis of COVID-19. It would be striking to hear of a similar position proposed by President Biden. The president made his first diplomacy speech on February 4th, 2021 and said that "But we're also ready to work with Beijing when it's in America's interest to do so. We'll compete from a position of strength by building back better at home and working with our allies and partners." The emphasis of resilient production and concern of national security has led to a push to restructure the global supply chain. Newly announced executive order by the White House is to conduct a 100-day review of four key industries and a yearlong review for six product sectors, covering defense, public health, information technology, transportation, energy and food production. Thereby, it would be interesting to tackle the following issues by multinationals on every front: 1. How will design of supply chains and direct investment be affected out of the US-China Decoupling, both vertically and horizontally? 2. How will decoupling impact China's technology advancements and her long-term economic policy, say the so called "dual circulation strategy"? 3. Can we look for a silver lining out of the great rivalry?