移民和留學的旅遊吸引效果—以中國出境旅遊市場為例

The Impact of Emigrants and Study-Abroad Students on China’s Outbound Tourism

10.6342/NTU201600731

陳昱安

中國 ； OECD ； 出境旅遊 ； 移民 ； 留學生 ； 重力模型 ； China ； OECD ； Outbound tourism ； Migration ； Study-abroad students ； Gravity model

國立臺灣大學農業經濟學系學位論文

2016年

碩士

羅竹平

繁體中文

本研究提供移民是否可以影響旅遊人次的實證研究，分析主體為中國的出境旅遊市場。探討移居在外國的中國移民是否可以增進該國的中國遊客人次，除了探討長期移民外，在學術上本研究首先將短期移民亦加入分析模型，驗證中國留學生是否能吸引中國民眾前往該留學國家旅遊。選取樣本為OECD的34個會員國，資料涵蓋範圍為西元1999年至2013年。迴歸結果支持移民是影響中國人民出境旅遊的因素之一，本研究得到中國移民的迴歸係數為0.230。在99%的信心水準下，OECD國家的中國移民增加1%，則到訪OECD國家的中國遊客會增加0.230%。居住在OECD國家的移民具有拉力作用可以吸引更多中國遊客前來觀光。另一方面，中國留學生的迴歸係數為0.113，在99%的信心水準下，前往OECD國家留學的中國留學生增加1%，則到訪OECD國家的中國遊客會增加0.113%，顯示留學生對於出境旅遊人數也具有顯著的正向影響。移民可能由於探親旅遊、商務需求而吸引更多家鄉的人民前往旅遊。而留學生除了引起探親旅遊以外，在中國有許多家庭為了未來就業、移民方便，會先探訪考察熱門的留學、移民國家而增加旅遊人次。

Immigration can induce tourism. The purpose of this paper is to investigate that how immigrants influence on Mainland China’s outbound tourism flow. The gravity model is developed and estimated using data from 1999 to 2013 for 34 OECD destination countries. Importantly this paper first demonstrates that short-run immigrants, namely international students, can also affect the demand of tourism. Tourism arrivals from China to OECD members are regressed against GDP, distance, real exchange rate, stock of OECD residents born in China, which is used as a proxy for immigration from China, and the number of Chinese students study aboard in OECD countries. The results empirically support the connection between immigration and outbound tourism. The emigration elasticity estimated is 0.230 and the study-abroad student elasticity is 0.113. It proves that the stock of Chinese residing abroad (including the international students) has a positive pulling effect on China’s outbound tourism. Not only the regular visiting friends and relatives trip triggered by emigrants and study-abroad students can induce tourism inflow from China to OECD countries. Those who have business connections with emigrants between OECD countries and China will also increase the tourism outflow from China by travel for business purpose. In China, there are huge demand for migration and study abroad. Chinese people are interesting in investigating popular migration and study abroad destination countries by joining a short term inspecting travel route before they decide which country to apply. By doing this, those countries who have more stock of immigrant and international students born in China can have more attraction to Chinese tourists.

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