金融危機的警鐘: 市場性資訊報導策略—盈餘的觀點

Warning bell on financial crisis: Market-wide information-reporting strategy from an earnings perspective

10.6342/NTU201701698

陳岳鴻

市場性資訊 ； 致股東報告書 ； 報導策略 ； 金融危機 ； 條件機率 ； market-wide information ； letter to shareholders ； reporting strategy ； financial crisis ； conditional probability

國立臺灣大學會計學系學位論文

2017年

博士

劉啟群

英文

本文探討市場性資訊與個體特定資訊間的揭露行為。以標準普爾500指數金融機構的2007年致股東報告書為研究樣本，在2007年致股東報告書中，超過半數的樣本公司於2008年金融危機爆發前，揭露了與金融危機相關的市場性資訊。本文實證結果顯示闡述過去盈餘表現的個體特定資訊，與金融危機相關的市場性資訊呈現負向報導策略關係。進一步納入未來盈餘表現探討報導策略關係時，揭露金融危機相關的市場性資訊的條件機率，將隨著未來盈餘表現越差，而提高負面市場性資訊的揭露機率。本文支持致股東報告書傳遞了『警鐘』的市場性資訊。

I investigate the market-wide and firm-specific information-disclosure behavior. Using letters to shareholders from Standard & Poors (S&P) 500 Index’s financial institutions, I find more than half of the sampled managers’ letters to shareholders in 2007 disclosed crisis information, immediately prior to the 2008 crisis. This paper documents a negative reporting-strategy relationship between the firm-specific information of past positive earnings performance expression and market-wide information about the financial crisis. Further findings reveal that the managers’ conditional probability of disclosing their outlook of the imminent crisis increased with future negative earnings changes, supporting the position that the letters to shareholders conveyed market-wide information as a “warning bell” prior to the crisis.

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