應用自上而下與自下而上土地利用及降雨-逕流模式模擬土地利用變遷與水文量－以寶橋集水區為例

Applications of top-down and bottom-up land use and rainfall-runoff models to simulate land use changes and hydrology- a case study of Paochiao watershed

10.6342/NTU.2008.01263

王彥覃

土地利用變遷模式 ； SLEUTH模式 ； CLUE-S模式 ； 景觀生態指數 ； 降雨-逕流模式 ； 集水區土地利用管理 ； land-use modeling ； SLEUTH model ； CLUE-S model ； landscape metrics ； rainfall-runoff model ； watershed land-use management

國立臺灣大學生物環境系統工程學系學位論文

2008年

碩士

林裕彬

繁體中文

土地利用變遷及其對環境衝擊之研究中，模擬模式為量化方法之重要工具。經由模式之建立可瞭解變遷機制與趨勢，以及土地利用變遷對於水文系統之影響，提供集水區永續經營管理之依據。而土地利用變遷模式依照其模擬機制，可分為自上而下(top-down)與自下而上(bottom-up)的方法，但兩種模式極少被同時使用。而土地利用變遷對水文量之影響常可由分佈性水文模式加以模擬及量化。本研究嘗試結合兩種模擬機制之土地利用變遷模式，模擬土地利用變遷之空間分佈，並以降雨-逕流模式模擬與評估土地利用變遷之衝擊。 本研究以鄰近台北都會區之寶橋集水區為例，並以1990、1993、1998與2000年SPOT衛星影像，首先應用自下而上之模式－SLEUTH，模擬2001-2025年之土地利用面積及空間分佈，以空間統計模式－CLUE-S及SLEUTH模擬之面積，模擬相同期距之研究區土地利用格局及空間分佈。並以降雨-逕流模式HEC-HMS及2000年之暴雨事件模擬與評估土地利用變遷對暴雨逕流量之影響，且比較相同事件下2025年及2000年之逕流量差異，同時以景觀生態指數分析土地格局空間分佈變遷之趨勢，以評估不同機制土地利用模式之適用性。 研究結果顯示SLEUTH模式可模擬未來土地利用之需求趨勢，CLUE-S模式較能模擬符合研究區域土地利用格局之歷史趨勢，土地利用模擬結果顯示，土地利用格局於2015年趨於穩定，土地利用雜異化程度於2010年後逐漸變小，由逕流模擬結果指出，2025年寶橋集水區的建地增加、不透水表面增加，造成洪峰流量與總逕流體積增加、洪峰時刻提早。比較第二類與第三類臨前水分條件之水文事件，發現第三類臨前水分條件之事件所模擬水文量的變化較第二類更為敏感。本研究成功地結合兩種土地利用模式及降雨-逕流模式，並應用於寶橋集水區之土地利用變遷及對暴雨逕流之影響評估，此整合之方法可提供集水區之土地利用管理及規劃之參考。

Models are important tools for quantifying approaches in the research of land-use and environmental impacts. Humans can realize the mechanisms and trends of land-use changes and their effects on hydrological system for the watershed planning and management. Land-use models based on their simulating mechanisms can be divided into top-down and bottom-up approaches, but these two kinds of models are seldom applied together. Distributed hydrological models can simulate and quantify land-use changes and its effects on hydrology. This study attempts to combine two land-use models of different simulating mechanisms, and simulates the spatial distribution of land-use changes. This study also simulates and evaluates land-use changes and their effects on hydrology by HEC-HMS model. This study used four historical SPOT images for 1990, 1993, 1998 and 2000 for the Paochiao watershed next to Taipei metropolis. The SLEUTH model is a bottom-up model that simulated land-use area and spatial distribution from 2001-2025. CLUE-S model is a spatial statistical model that simulated the same period in the study area. The rainfall-runoff model HEC-HMS and storm events in 2000 simulated and evaluated land-use changes and their influences on rainfall-runoff and compared to the difference of runoff for the same event in 2000 and 2025. Calculating and analyzing the landscape metrics of land-use spatial changes and trends can evaluate the suitability of different mechanism land-use models. The results revealed that SLEUTH model can simulate the trend of land-use demand, and the CLUE-S model can simulate the land-use patterns that fit to the historical trend. The consequences of land-use changes showed that the fragmentation of the landscape patterns tend to be stable after 2015 and spatial heterogeneity of land-use changes gradually become small. The land-use simulated results revealed that the built-up area and impervious surface increase. The hydrological components are affected by urban sprawl; specifically, the peak discharge, total runoff volume increased, and the time to peak early arrived. Comparing to the antecedent moisture condition II and III, the antecedent moisture condition III is more sensitive than the type II in reflecting the magnitude of the hydrology. This study integrates two land-use models and a rainfall-runoff model. Moreover, it applies to land-use change and its effects on rainfall-runoff in the Paochiao watershed. Therefore, this integrated approach can provide to the watershed management and planning as a reference in the future.

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