氣候變遷與土地利用變遷對水文服務的影響-以大屯溪流域為例

Impacts of Climate Change and Land Use Change on Hydrological Services- A Case Study of Datuan Watershed

10.6342/NTU201603527

陳珮琦

水文服務 ； 氣候變遷模式 ； CLUE-s模式 ； SWAT模式 ； InVEST模式 ； hydrological services ； SWAT model ； InVEST model ； climate change ； land-use change

國立臺灣大學生物環境系統工程學系學位論文

2017年

碩士

林裕彬

繁體中文

水是對生物最重要的自然資源之一，其提供廣泛人類和生態系統基本功能的行為稱之為水文服務。土地利用改變，加上氣候變遷影響，深深的影響著水文服務，為了實現環境資源永續發展，如何把土地利用變遷和氣候變遷對水文服務的影響，做量化評估是一個重要的問題。為了評估土地利用變遷與氣候變遷兩者的影響，本研究以大屯溪為例模擬出結果。首先，本研究使用IPCC第五次評估報告（AR5）中五個情境預測的未來氣候數據，然後採用其變異係數最大者為代表，接著採用CLUE-s模型將氣候因子加入來預測土地利用的變化，本研究設定六種情境：2008年現況、土地利用改變情境一、土地利用改變情境二、氣候變遷、氣候變遷下土地利用改變情境一、氣候變遷下土地利用改變情境二，最後使用傳統水文模式-SWAT(Soil and Water Assessment Tool)模式及新興生態系統服務模式-InVEST(Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs)模式來計算水文服務，如出水量和泥砂量，並對兩種模式結果做比較，列出各自優缺點。 在近未來年中，出水量部分，SWAT模式在土地利用變遷下改變甚小，甚至使豐水期枯水期流量皆增加，其原因可能是因為大屯溪流域在未來土地利用改變中，減少的農地有接近一半轉變成水土保持優良的林地，一半轉變成不透水的建地，中和了整體流域的水文變化。而六個情境中，以豐枯水差距而言，土地利用情境一模擬未來流量結果最佳，而單純氣候變遷模擬未來流量結果最差；以年總流量而言，氣候變遷加情境一2030年流量結果最差。InVEST模式，在氣候變遷下出水量的空間分佈將有所改變，出水量六個情境結果，其空間分佈以氣候變遷加土地利用變遷情境一最為破碎，且其總年出水量最小，而數值上以2008年出水量最多。泥砂量部分，SWAT模式在土地利用改變下，泥砂量輸出有減少趨勢，氣候變遷情境下其結果亦有減少趨勢，以總體泥砂出輸量而言，2008年泥砂量輸出最多，氣候變遷加土地利用變遷情境一泥砂量輸出最少。InVEST模式結果之空間分佈整體泥砂量輸出分布變化趨勢一致，但受氣候因子影響，土地利用變遷情境下上游泥沙量輸出明顯較少，中下游段有明顯增加並集中趨勢；以整體泥砂量輸出數值而言，與SWAT模式結果一致，2008年泥砂量輸出最多，氣候變遷加土地利用變遷情境一泥砂量輸出最少。 SWAT模式與InVEST模式模擬結果比較中，出水量的部分，兩模式模擬結果趨勢成高度一致性，SWAT模式模擬結果多略高於InVEST模式模擬結果；在泥砂量輸出部分，兩模式模擬結果趨勢成一致性，SWAT模式模擬結果多高於InVEST模式模擬結果，且結果較為分散；但兩模式模擬泥砂量留存數值結果大相逕庭。

Water is the most important natural resource, providing a wide range of fundamental functions –hydrological services-- to both humanity and ecological systems alike. Unfortunately, hydrological services have been strongly affected by climate change and land-use change. Therefore, it is crucial to quantify how the hydrological services have been affected by atmospheric change and land-use change. This study aims to quantify hydrological services by using two models – one is a traditional hydrologic model – SWAT model and another is a new ecosystem model – InVEST model. Our study area is Datuan river watershed, which is located in the northern part of Taiwan. First, we used IPCC fifth assessment report(AR5) scenarios of RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 as components of the future precipitation regimes, and we use CLUE-s model to predict future land-use change. Then we use SWAT model and InVEST model to calculate the hydrological services, including water yield and sediment. Finally, we contrast SWAT model and InVEST model results. The results show that water yield in both wet season and dry season will be extremely high in the near future. Moreover, the simulated results show that water yields derived from the InVEST model will be more significantly affected by climate change than those predicted by the SWAT model. Sediment retention will be less affected by climate change based on the results from the InVEST model. To sum up, by comparing results between two models, hydrological services analysis indicates that climate change will not only have a huge impact on overall hydrological services, particularly water yield, but also on the distribution of such services.

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