我國非常時期糧食安全與糧食供給規劃之研究

A Study on the Food Security and Food Supply Planning in the Emergency Period in Taiwan

10.6342/NTU.2012.02834

林子喬

非常時期 ； 糧食安全 ； 糧食供給規劃 ； 最低熱量需求 ； Emergency Period ； Food Security ； Food Supply Planning ； Minimum Calorie Intake

國立臺灣大學農業經濟學系學位論文

2012年

碩士

林國慶

繁體中文

隨著世界糧食需求與供給波動增加，糧食價格於2002年起呈現上升之趨勢，並於2006至2008年間巨幅上漲，引發世界各國對糧食安全相關議題的重視；我國屬於糧食淨進口國，在此糧食價格與供給量波動的背景下，可能因糧食出口國採取出口干預策略，而面臨糧食進口受阻的非常時期。本研究整理分析糧食安全風險與因應措施，以及非常時期糧食安全因應措施的相關文獻，並針對不同經濟發展程度和農業資源稟賦類型國家的糧食安全問題與因應措施進行分析。由於非常時期國家穩定供給糧食為我國重要糧食安全議題，故參考林國慶（2011）建構之非常時期糧食供需模型，同時分別對2020年三項影響糧食供需的重要變數（我國總耕地面積、各品項作物每公頃期作種植面積平均產量、我國總人口數）進行樂觀與悲觀情境設定，並將三變數之樂觀與悲觀情境組合成八種不同情境並進行實證模擬。本研究之實證結果如下：（1）若我國於2020年發生無法進口糧食之非常時期，則在本研究設定之八種情境下，國人皆能取得平均每人每日2,000大卡之最低熱量需求，以及12％之最低蛋白質占總熱量營養需求；（2）當我國面臨非常時期時，為供給國人維生與營養所需之糧食，糧食供給組合相對於平常時期將會顯著改變；（3）比較我國與日本2020年非常時期糧食供給組合模擬結果，我國任一情境糧食供給組合之平均每人每日熱量供給或PFC比例，都較日本非常時期之消費型態為佳。本研究根據實證結果提出以下政策建議：（1）本研究採用之模型以耕地為基礎，因此欲確保此模擬結果，平常時期應有效維護耕地數量與品質；（2）為確保非常時期我國耕地之生產力，政府應於休耕地進行生產試驗，以了解耕地休耕對平均產量的影響，同時建議耕地不應長期休耕、棄耕或廢耕，並維持我國耕地處於妥適的經營狀況與生產力，確保多數耕地能處於隨時皆能投入生產的狀況；（3）本研究模型假設非常時期水資源取得無虞，但欲確保此模擬結果，平常時期應妥善維護水資源及灌溉設施；（4）本研究假設我國面臨非常時期時，國內糧食平均產量不會受到氣候變遷或極端氣候的影響，因此欲確保此模擬結果，政府應針對非常時期可能的自然災害，以及自然災害與糧食供給關係進行更深入的評估。

With the increase of fluctuation in world food demand and supply, the price of food has gone up since 2002, and soared between 2006 and 2008. This has aroused the world wide concerns about the food security issue. With the fluctuation of food price and quantity, food export countries may take export intervention strategies. Therefore, a net food import nation like Taiwan may face a crisis of unable to import the food. This study analyzes literature on food security risks, food security risk management and emergency period food security risk management. Then the study analyzes the food security risks and food security risks management in different types of countries, which are classified according to economic status and agricultural endownment. Since stable food supply in an emergency period is a major concern to Taiwan, the study refers to Lin Kuo-Ching（2011）emergency food supply and demand model, and sets optimistic and pessimistic scenarios in 2020, focusing on the three important variables, including total farm land, per hectare planed area output of each agricultural products and total population. The study composes optimistic and pessimistic scenarios of the three variables into eight different scenarios and conducts the empirical simulation. The results of this empirical simulation are summarized as follows: (1) If an emergency occurred in 2020, all people could obtain the minimum calorie intake (2,000 Kcal) and protein ratio (12％), under the eight circumstances designed in the study. (2) In order to provide food for domestic people to survive and achieve nutrient requirements in an emergency period, the diet composition will be diffirent significantly. (3) Compared with the consumption pattern of Japan during the special period, the consumption pattern in Taiwan is better, including the calories and nutrients basis. According to the simulation result, the policy recommendations made are summarized as follows: (1) Since the model used in this study is based on the farm land, ensuring quantity and quality of the farm land is essential to achieve the the result. (2) In order to understand the relationship between set aside farm land and its productivity, the government should make experiments on set aside farm land to ensure the productivity of the farm land in an emergency. It also suggests that not to set a farm land aside for a long period of time, neither abandon nor discard. The farm land should be maintained in proper management and productivity, so that it can be always ready to put into production. (3) The model used in the study assumes that water resource is certainly acquirable, therefor maintaining water resource and irrigation facility in normal period is indispensable. (4) Since assumptions of the model is domestic productivity will not be affected by climate change or extreme weather in an emergency period, the government should do more detail assessment of natural disaster in an emergency and the relationship between natural disaster and food supply in an emergency to assure the simulation result can be achieved.

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