影響花卉拍賣價格之因素：實證研究

An empirical study on the critical factors of floral bidding price

10.6846/TKU.2017.00875

林彥甫

花卉拍賣 ； 拍賣價格因素 ； 多元迴歸分析 ； Flower Auction ； Auction Price Factor ； Multiple Regression Analysis

淡江大學資訊管理學系碩士在職專班學位論文

2017年

碩士

鄭啟斌

繁體中文

台北花卉批發市場於民國103年03月自內湖瑞光路移師至新湖三路、民善街口，本研究透過新場域的交易資料，探討可能影響花卉拍賣價格之變數，利用相關解釋變數建立多元迴歸分析模型，並分別由每月拍賣價格、每日拍賣價格至每筆拍賣價格，以及從全部產品、大類產品至小類產品說明影響花卉拍賣價格之因素。 實證結果顯示，全部產品方面，殘貨量及節慶因素對於拍賣價格達顯著，然而在大類方面，進貨量、承銷人數、前日平均價格及節慶因素對於拍賣價格達顯著影響，小類方面，若以每月拍賣價格探討，則以進貨量及節慶因素為顯著，若以每日拍賣價格來看，則當日進貨量、前日平均價格及節慶因素對於拍賣價格達顯著影響，最後以每日當筆資料分析，每件把數數量、時段、線別、花卉等級以及供應人因素均達顯著影響。 本研究之結果可供台北花卉批發市場及其供應人與承銷人作為參考，後續亦可藉由本研究之影響因素，建立拍賣前自動開價模式公式運算之基礎。

Taipei Flowers Auction CO.LTD in March 2014 from Ruiguang Rd., Neihu Dist., Taipei City move to Xinhu 3rd Rd., Neihu Dist., Taipei City. This study based on transaction data of the new field, explores the variables that may affect the auction price of flowers. Using the relevant explanatory variables to establish a Multiple Regression analysis model, and respectively by the monthly auction price, the daily auction price,and transaction price data, as well as from all products, Major products to categories of products , to describe the factors that affect the price of the flower auction. According to the empirical results, all the products, the amount of goods and festivals for the auction price significantly.However, in the major products, the purchase volume, number of bidding people, the day before the average price and festivals for the auction price of significant impact. And in categories of products, for the monthly auction price to explore, the purchase volume and festivals for the significant, for the daily auction price, then the day of purchase, the day before the average price and festivals for the auction price significantly affected, for the daily analysis of the data, the bunch of each number, time period, line, flower level and supply factors have a significant impact. The results of this study can be used as a reference for the Taipei flower wholesale market and its suppliers and underwriters. The follow-up can also be used as the basis for the calculation of the automatic bidding mode before the auction.

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