住宅負擔能力與貸款補貼對家戶購屋決策之影響

The Impact of Housing Affordability and Mortgage Subsidy on the Household’s Homeownership Decision

10.6833/CJCU.2006.00024

周依晴

購屋決策行為 ； 住宅負擔能力 ； 貸款補貼 ； Homeownership Decision ； Housing Affordability ； Mortgage Subsidy

長榮大學土地管理與開發研究所學位論文

2006年

碩士

謝博明

繁體中文

本研究主要目的為分析購屋決策影響因素中住宅負擔能力及貸款補貼對於家戶進行購屋決策之影響程度，並透過不同住宅負擔能力指標探討現今家戶住宅負擔狀況，以及使用模擬分析方式探討貸款補貼降低住宅支出之效果，且進一步從公平層面探討目前台灣貸款補貼於不同所得水準之分配效果。以2004年第一季至2005年第二季，共六季的「台灣住宅需求動向調查」資料，採用二元羅吉特模型進行實證結果分析，為探討在不同家戶生命週期下家戶對於購屋決策行為之差異，本研究將分三個不同年齡層家戶（25~34歲、35~44歲及45-54歲）進行探討。 住宅負擔能力狀況分析部份，本研究利用購屋門檻限制（PIR）以住宅支出與所得之百分比（CIR）兩項指標，探討現今購屋者家戶之購屋門檻限制以及租屋者家戶之住宅負擔能力狀況。此外，將以Hills（1991）等主要文獻中提出權屬中立（Tenure Neutrality）之概念下，並符合Hancock and Munro（1992）提出補貼佔所得之比例需隨著所得增加而減少（Progressive Subsidies）之現象建立補貼公平原則，探討目前台灣貸款補貼政策於不同所得水準的分配效果。 經由本研究實證結果發現，雖然現今大多中低所得之家戶受購屋門檻限制影響，但透過貸款方式得以解決負擔過重之問題，此隱含著首次購屋家戶受自備款限制影響。再者，貸款補貼雖對於首次購屋家戶之購屋決策有顯著的影響，但卻發現其降低家戶住宅支出效果有限，主要原因是一般銀行推出的貸款方案排擠到政府優惠房貸之效果。而且，由貸款補貼之分配效果分析發現台灣目前貸款補貼之分配為所得高者得到較多的補貼，此不符合補貼公平原則。 另外，其他因素中戶長年齡、先前的住宅權屬、區位、未來房價預期漲幅、建坪對於購屋決策行為亦有顯著之影響。除此之外，透過邊際效果分析發現有無貸款補貼對於年輕家戶影響最大，而購屋門檻限制部份卻對中壯年家戶影響最大，此研究結果可能與年輕家戶之經濟條件有關，致使貸款補貼對其影響最大，而因中壯年戶之家戶住宅負擔（PIR）較年輕家戶及中老年家戶來得輕，使得當住宅負擔加重而超過其原本所能負擔之範圍時，則可能會影響其否購屋之選擇，因此使得購屋門檻限制對中壯年家戶影響最大。

This study aims analyze the influence of housing affordability and housing subsidy on the household’s homeownership decision. The equality of housing subsidy to households between tenures and between different income levels is also discussed. This study uses the data from “The Survey for Housing Demand” to estimate the household’s housing decision by employing a binary logit model. In order to analyze the household’s tenure decision under different stage of household life cycle, this study divides the household’s age into three different age groups as 25-34 years old; 35-44 years old; 45-55 years old. With regard to housing affordability, this study uses price to income ratio (PIR) and cost to income ratio (CIR) to measurd the household’s threshold to the owner-occupation sector, and also measure the renting affordability to renters. Moreover, this study uses Hills’ (1991) concept of tenure neutrality to analyze the distribution of housing (mortgage) subsidy to households in different income levels. The results would have implications to the equality issue of current housing subsidy program. Our results suggest that most households in middle and low income levels have barrier to enter the owner-occupied sector under the PIR rationing however, the affordability threshold can be reduced through mortgages. This implies that the down payment rationing is the most significant barrier to first-time homebuyers. The results show that current mortgage interest rate subsidy to first-time homebuyers has a significant effect on the household’s homeownership propensity but has limited effect on reducing in housing expenditure. This is because many private banks have provided lower interest and more incentive mortgage programs to homebuyers as a result to offset the government’s mortgage subsidy programs. In addition, the results show an inequality in the distribution of mortgage interest subsidy in which homebuyers in higher income level receive more motgage interest subsidy than middle and low income homebuyers. Moreover, some variables such as the householders’ age, previous tenure status, housing location, total floor areas, and expectation to house price have significant impacts on homeownership decisions. The results of marginal effect show that mortgage subsidy have most significant impact on younger households, while affordability barrier have most significant impact on middle and young households.

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