順序拍賣的價格下滑異象 – 以台北花卉批發市場為例的實證分析

The Declining Price Anomaly in Sequential Auction - The Empirical Analysis of Taipei Flowers Auction

10.6843/NTHU.2010.00426

申維綱

拍賣 ； 順序拍賣 ； 順序荷蘭式拍賣 ； 價格下滑 ； Auction ； Sequential Auction ； Sequential Dutch Auction ； Price Decline Anomaly

清華大學經濟學系學位論文

2010年

碩士

周嗣文

繁體中文

在順序拍賣（Sequential Auction）的文獻當中，基本模型的預測是拍賣的成交價格不會隨著拍賣的順序而變動，但實證的結果卻顯示了成交價格會隨著拍賣的順序而下滑。本文主要的目的是以台北花卉批發市場的順序荷蘭式拍賣資料，探討台北花市是否也存在著成交價格下滑的現象。結果發現了成交價格確實有下滑的現象，且下滑的幅度有遞減的趨勢。這與Van Den Berg et al.（2001）文中的結論有些許不同，他從荷蘭阿斯米爾花卉批發市場的資料中，發現了成交價格有下滑的現象，但下滑的幅度是遞增的。在解釋成交價格下滑的原因方面，我們引用McAfee and Daniel Vincent（1993）提出的模型，以投標者的風險趨避心態來解釋價格下滑的原因，並導入節慶的影響加以探討，看節慶是否會加強風險趨避的效果，進而影響價格下滑的幅度。但在實證結果中，卻發現節慶不會影響價格下降的幅度。

In the literatures of sequential auction, the basic model expects that the auction prices in every round are the same, but the expectation of the basic model is not supported by empirical studies, which usually find price declines. In this paper, we analyze the data on sequential Dutch auctions from Taipei Flowers Auction to examine whether the prices decline or not. We find that there is a substantial price decline, and the magnitude of price decline becomes small successively. Our finding makes some difference to Van Den Berg et al. (2001). They observe the declining price in Aalsmeer Flower Auction, but the magnitude of price decline becomes large successively. With regard to the reason of declining price, our theoretical model is based on McAfee and Daniel Vincent (1993) which applies to risk averse bidders; In addition, we take the effect of festival into account. To see whether the festival could strengthen the effect of risk aversion, and further influence the magnitude of price decline. However, we discover that festival has no impact on the magnitude of price decline actually in Taipei Flowers Auction.

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