運用賽局理論探討企業間在總量管制與排放交易下之環境投資和生產規劃決策

Applying Game Theory to Analyze Inter-firm Decisions on Environmental Investment and Production Planning under a Cap and Trade Policy

10.6840/cycu201600815

郭丞傑

碳交易 減碳投資 動態規劃 賽局理論 納許平衡 ； carbon reduction capex carbon trading dynamic planning game theory nash equilibrium

中原大學工業與系統工程學系學位論文

2016年

碩士

宮大川;周永燦

繁體中文

隨著全球節能減碳意識高漲，減少溫室氣體排放是當前國際上必須共同面臨的急迫議題，鑒於京都議定書的減量成果不及抑制全球溫室氣體排放快速成長導致之地球升溫，聯合國氣候變化綱要公約(UNFCCC)於2015年簽署巴黎協議，要求締約國採取積極的溫室氣體減排行動以達到控制溫度上升低於2℃之目標。在政府減碳政策下，造成顧客在選購產品上，除了考慮價格外，也需考慮產品本身碳排放程度，這其中取決於產品的零組件等級，零組件節能等級越高，使用階段碳排就越少但相對價格較高，故企業間在搶奪市場需求時，除了價格外，產品之碳排放量也成為一重要因素。因此企業在政府減碳政策下進行減碳投資決策時，需考慮碳市場碳價格趨勢、生產成本、顧客需求趨勢以及競爭對手之減碳投資策略，準確的進行節能與高產能設備投資、產能調配、碳交易買賣碳權時機、產品定價與零組件選擇等決策，如何有效進行減碳管理儼然是現今企業提升競爭力時必須探討的課題。本論文利用動態規劃與賽局理論建立企業間減碳投資決策模式，以利潤最大化為目標，先以動態規劃求出各情境下雙方企業的最大利潤，再以賽局模式求得企業間決策的納許平衡點，接著依數值範例分析與參數分析結果，提出管理面向意涵，供企業在經濟與環境永續間尋求平衡之參考。

With the increasing awareness of global carbon emissions, lowering the amount of greenhouse gases becomes an important issue faced by most countries in general. Since its first introduction, Kyoto Protocol gave no significant contributions in reducing emissions. This caused UNFCCC to sign the Paris Agreement in 2015, where every participating country is bound to actively reduce the amount of emissions in order to keep global temperature rise below 2℃. Under the effect of carbon reduction policy, customers will not only consider the product price but also will consider the amount of carbon emissions to fabricate the product. Carbon emission from a product depends on the level of the component. High level component usually emits lower carbon and saves more energy in its fabrication process but increasing its price. Therefore, in the competitiveness among companies, carbon emission has become an important factor besides product price. In reducing carbon emissions, companies need to limit their emissions based on the government policies, carbon prices, production costs, demand trends and carbon reduction strategies from competitors. Companies can choose some strategies to effectively reduce the carbon emissions while also enhance their competitiveness by: investing in energy efficient and high capacity equipment, planning the capacity allocation, finding suitable timing for carbon trading, pricing and selecting component levels. This paper utilizes dynamic programming and game theory to formulate the model which helps the companies to choose the most optimum strategy in maximizing the total profit. At first, dynamic programming simulates the profit of each scenario, and later game theory is applied to obtain Nash equilibrium values for the strategies from both companies and their competitors. Through given numerical examples, we analyze the obtained results, managerial implications, and find out the trade-off between economic and environmental sustainability.

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