能源衝擊對臺灣家計福利與所得分配之影響

The Effects of Energy Shocks on Household Welfare and Income Distribution: The Case of Taiwan

10.6840/cycu201600813

湛浩偉

能源衝擊 ； 所得分配 ； 可計算一般均衡模型 ； 社會會計矩陣 ； Energy Shocks ； Income Distribution ； Computable General Equilibrium model ； Social Accounting Matrix

中原大學國際經營與貿易學系學位論文

2016年

碩士

林師模;林晉勗

英文

能源是現代社會不可或缺的基礎資源，過去隨著經濟與產業的蓬勃發展，臺灣的能源消費日益增多，但是供給的來源卻仍大部分仰賴進口，所以一旦能源市場發生突發狀況以至於造成價量不穩時，將會嚴重影響到經濟社會的繁榮，也連帶會影響到家計單位的生活水準，甚至惡化所得分配，加劇社會的不公平。 家計單位是經濟社會最基礎的單元體，家計單位的福利變動反映了社會滿足與快樂程度的變化，而家計所得分配的變化則是一定程度反映了經濟社會公平狀態的改變。本研究透過一靜態、以社會會計矩陣為基礎之台灣可計算一般均衡 (CGE) 模型，搭配衡量福利與所得分配之指標，探討原油、煤以及天然氣等主要初級能源發生明顯外在價量變動時對台灣經濟社會的影響。 實證結果發現，能源之外在衝擊對各項經濟指標皆會產生顯著的影響，能源價格上漲或是供給減少導致物價上漲，使得民眾維持效用所需的花費上升，造成家計之福利水準下滑；而商品價格變貴在多數情況下所導致之可支配所得減少也擴大了貧富差距。

Energy is an essential resource in modern society. With the rapid development of the economy and industry, Taiwan's energy consumption is increasing continuously. However, behind the energy supply is mostly from import, we should take care of the possible shocks after natural disasters occur or specific policies implement. The energy shocks will seriously influence economic markets and affect the household standard of living significantly. Household is the most basic unit of a society. To analyze the household influence from shocks, we can measure the welfare to know the satisfaction and happiness level of the household, and the income distribution to realize the moving for the household revenue and expenditure. In the research, it uses a static, SAM-based computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for Taiwan to analyze the effects of exogenous energy shocks on household welfare and income distribution. The empirical results indicate that energy shocks will have significant effects on the economy. Specifically, an increase in energy prices or a disruption of energy supply will raise the commodity prices, leading to a decline in household welfare and, in most cases, a deterioration of income distribution.

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