台灣房價之總體經濟因素模式研究

A Study for Macroeconomic Factor Model on Taiwan Housing Prices

10.6840/cycu201000199

張學平

房屋價格 ； 複迴歸模式 ； 總體經濟因素 ； multiple regression model ； housing price ； macroeconomic factor

中原大學國際貿易研究所學位論文

2010年

碩士

何瓊芳

繁體中文

摘要 在「有土斯有財」的傳統觀念根深柢固下，使房地產成為國人所偏好的資產。房地產不僅可以滿足住的需求性，還具有投資的功能。在國內眾多的投資工具中，房地產可說是一大重要投資工具。加上，近幾年在金融海嘯爆發後，美國經濟復甦緩慢，美元貶值，全球熱錢找尋新避險標的，亞洲房地產因而湧現資金行情，使房地產的地位扶搖直上。故本研究的目 的為觀察國內房地產的情形，探討總體經濟的變動對於台灣房屋市場發展之影響。 在實證研究方面，本文搜集1998年至2009年季資料進行探討。以國泰房地產指數為研究對象，並在相關理論及參考文獻的基礎下，以七項的總體經濟變數作為解釋變數，建立房 價實證之複迴歸模式。 本研究使用EViews統計軟體，以普通最小平方法進行複迴歸分析，並透過共線性、顯著性、變異數齊一性及自我相關等統計檢定後，得到最後修正之複迴歸模式，並且找出影響房價走勢的四個重要變數，分別為「貸款利率」、「貨幣供給額M2」、「消費者物價指數」與「次級房貸風暴虛擬變數」，其中除了「貸款利率」與房價為負向關係外，其餘變數均與房價 間為正向闗係。 因此，消費者或投資人若能善用此四個變數以建立房價之預測模式，探討房市變化的方 向與強度，不論從投資面的買賣點或需求面的時機點之選擇，均可得到科學的參考依據。 關鍵詞：房屋價格、總體經濟因素、複迴歸模式

Abstract In the traditional view of “land is wealth,” so Taiwanese people prefer real estate to any other investments. Real estate property not only can satisfy the household demand of residence, but also serves the function of investment. Therefore real estate can be an important investment item among many domestic investment tools. In addition, the economic recovery of U.S. is slow after 2008’s financial crisis. There is a common sense that value of dollar has been depreciated, and many global key currencies seek for new instruments of hedge against inflation. In Asia’s real estate markets, there emerges huge amount of money, so that status of real estate stands out with increasingly importance. Therefore, this thesis aims at studying the overall influence of macroeconomic change on housing price in Taiwan. Quarterly data used cover the time period from 1998 to 2009 by applying. Cathay Housing Price Index as explained variable. Going through basic tests and construction of relevant theories and literature reviews, seven significant explanatory variables that affecting the trend of housing price were thus analyzed to establish a multiple regression model. This study conducted a multiple regression analysis by applying EViews software. With statistical tests for multicollinearity, significance, heteroscedasticity, and autocorrelation, the final modified multiple regression model was set up and four important variables affecting trend of housing price were found which includes：“loaning rate,” “money supply, M2,” “consumer price index,” and “dummy variable. Except the variable of “Loaning rate,” all other variables have positive relationship with housing price in Taiwan. If consumer or investor could apply the housing price model, and study the real estate long term trend and its strength of changes, regardless of buying and selling time selected in the housing markets, the empirical results can give a sciential and objective reference. Keywords：housing price, macroeconomic factor, multiple regression model

1. 曾昱旻(2011)。總體經濟對台灣都會區房價變動之研究。中原大學國際貿易研究所學位論文。2011。1-62。