環境政策之健康回饋效果評估

An Evaluation of the Health-related Feedback Effect under Environmental Policy

10.6840/cycu201100841

徐靖書

可計算一般均衡模型 ； 碳稅 ； 健康效果 ； computable general equilibrium model ； health effect ； Carbon tax

中原大學國際貿易研究所學位論文

2011年

碩士

林師模

繁體中文

近年來，氣候異常現象於世界各地頻繁發生，使得全球氣候變遷的議題逐漸受到各方關注。為減緩溫室氣體排放與降低全球氣候變遷之衝擊，聯合國多數會員國於1992年簽訂氣候變化綱要公約，開始聯手對抗溫室效應的第一步；其後，各項溫室氣體減排政策紛紛被提出。本文所探討的，便是溫室氣體減排政策之一的碳稅在實施後，對於台灣的經濟體系會造成何種程度的衝擊。而為改進以往相關文獻在討論類似議題時，忽略課徵碳稅會使環境品質提升，進而帶來勞動力健康狀態上升並導致其生產力提升的缺點，本文同時考慮碳稅與其所帶來之健康影響效果，將之納入評估模型建構的考量之中。透過本研究建構之台灣可計算一般均衡模型，數值模擬的結果發現，在未考量健康效果的情況下，碳稅對溫室氣體排放的減量效果將有高估的現象，此外，物價指數的漲幅會被放大，進而誇大了環境稅對於實質總產出的負面影響，同時也高估了課徵碳稅的減碳成本。

Recently, climatic anomalies happened frequently around the globe, which have made the climate change issues become more and more concerned. To abate greenhouse gas emissions and relieve the impact from climate change, most members of the United Nations signed the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 1992, setting a milestone for countries around the world to combat with greenhouse effect. After then, a variety of greenhouse gas abatement policies were proposed. The main purpose of this research is to estimate the effect a carbon tax may have on Taiwan’s economy. While previous studies often neglect that implementing carbon tax policy might improve environmental quality, which in turn will strengthen labor force’s health condition and hence its productivity, in this study we take the health-related feedback effect into account in constructing our policy evaluation model to more correctly estimate the effect of a carbon tax. The results of our numerical simulation show that abatement measure would be too optimistic if we do not take health effect into account. Besides, price effect would be amplified as well as the negative impact to real GDP under carbon tax, meaning that the abatement cost of the economy will be overestimated.

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