越南與泰國之殖利率與景氣預測研究

Yield Spreads and Economic Fluctuations in Vietnam and Thailand

10.6840/cycu201600516

杜氏玲

利差 ； GDP成長率 ； 失業成長率 ； 工業指數 ； Interest spread ； GDP growth rate ； Unemployement growth rate ； Industrial average index.

中原大學企業管理學系學位論文

2016年

碩士

高一誠

繁體中文

最近幾年來全球經濟大環境不斷變動，2008年從美國房貸危機開始引起發生全球金融海嘯。2010年全球經濟雖有恢復，但歐元區遇到嚴重的債務問題，導致全歐洲區的債務危機。這場危機不僅影響歐洲地區，而且影響世界經濟，並影響到全球經濟恢復的過程。越南跟泰國加入世界貿易組織（WTO）之後，兩國經濟已深深融入全球經濟，並反映在出口和資本流入越南的外國投資相當高的比例。因此，如果出現希臘債務危機，可能透過國際貿易的管道，對越南跟泰國的經濟產生一定程度的影響。 每個國家利率是一個重要的因素決定一個國家的經濟走向之一。利率的波動直接影響到國家的經濟，個人和企業的決策及信貸機構的活動等。文獻上有許多先進國家利用長短期利率的利差來分析與預測國家的未來經濟成長，但比較少關於開發中國家或者是亞州國家的案例。所以本研究想進行比較越南跟泰國的利差和未來的經濟成長率。因為越南的資料庫還有很多限制，因此本研究使用三年利率減去隔夜拆款利率得到之利差，對泰國本研究採用十年期公債減掉三個月國庫券達到利差，加上國家的GDP成長率和失業成長率與工業指數作為描述經濟景氣波動的變數。

In recent years, the global economic environment was changing, in 2008 from the US mortgage crisis caused by the global financial crisis began. In 2010, despite the global economic recovery, but the euro zone experiencing serious debt problems, leading to the debt crisis in the Europe region. This crisis affects not only Europe, but also affect the world economy, and affects the global economic recovery process. After Vietnam and Thailand joined WTO, the two economies are deeply integrated into the global economy, and reflect the export and capital inflows of foreign investment in Vietnam in a very high proportion. Therefore, if the Greek debt crisis may have some degree of influence through the conduit of international trade to Vietnam and Thai economy. Each country interest rates are an important factor in determining a country's economy. Fluctuations in interest rates directly affect the economic, personal and business activities at the national decision-making and credit institutions, and so on. There are many advanced countries in the literature using a long short-term interest rate spreads to analyze and predict the future economic growth of the country, but relatively few case studies on developing countries or Asian countries. Therefore, this study wants to spread and future economic growth rate between Vietnam and Thailand. because there are many restrictions repository of Vietnam, so this study used three years interest rate minus the overnight call rate to get the spread of this, to Thailand, they use decade bond spreads reached minus three-month treasury bills, and plus the country the GDP growth rate and unemployment rate of industrial growth index as described economic boom fluctuation variables.

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