台灣家戶的所得分配：分量迴歸之擬真分析

Income Distribution of Taiwan’s Households: Counterfactual Analysis under Quantile Regression

10.6837/NCNU.2008.00279

林維徵

家戶結構 ； 所得分配 ； 條件分配 ； 擬真分解 ； household structure ； income distribution ； condition of distribution ； counterfactual decomposition

國立暨南國際大學經濟學系學位論文

2008年

碩士

陳建良

繁體中文

台灣過去二十五年的經濟快速發展，不僅帶來劇烈的社會經濟與人口的變遷，所得分配不均度從1980年開始逐漸上升；90年代中期之後，所得成長趨緩但分配不均度快速惡化，也使台灣成為觀察所得分配的最佳對象。現有文獻對於台灣所得分配不均現象的研究並不缺乏，關注焦點也都集中在家庭結構的改變。但是相關研究在二個方向仍有不足：第一是大多數研究只強調均數的觀點，缺乏對整個所得分配區間的詳細分析；第二是多數研究採用1995年之前的資料，對晚近十年所得分配大幅變化的現象關照不足。本研究採用行政院主計處提供的1980及2005年家庭收支調查資料庫，引用Machado and Mata (2005) 的模型，以分量迴歸 (quantile regression) 搭配自體重複抽取 (bootstrapping) 樣本刻劃所得的條件分配，並由此進行擬真分解 (counterfactual decomposition)，仔細分析過去二十五年期間台灣家戶所得分配變化趨勢的成因，以及這些影響因素的個別貢獻。文中發現家戶結構的改變的確對所得不均度造成影響，家戶結構從傳統家庭轉變為核心家庭為主，同時老年家戶和女性擔任戶長的比例增加，造成了所得分配不均度的惡化。與現有文獻不同的發現是，家戶居住在都市的比例上升也是造成所得分配不均度惡化的原因之一。

Taiwan’s rapid economic development of the past 25 years has not only resulted in dramatic socio-economic and demographic changes, but also in the unequal distribution of family income, which has risen gradually since 1980. After the mid-1990s, this growth in income growth has slowed down but the uneven distribution of income has increased. This phenomenon of unequal distribution may be due to the changes in family structure. However the research available in the literature is inadequate for two reasons: first, most researchers only investigated the average income distribution and do not carry out a full detailed analysis, and second, most studies use data prior to 1995, and therefore do not include the significant changes in the distribution of income that have taken place in the past 10 years. This research is based on the Survey of Family Income and Expenditure database between 1980 and 2005, as provided by the Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics, Executive Yuan, R.O.C. It uses Machado and Mata (2005) model, quantile regression with bootstrapping samples from the characterizations of the conditions for distribution and counterfactual decomposition, to carefully analyze the past 25 years the distribution trend in Taiwan’s household income, its causes and the impact of these factors upon individuals. The finding of this study show that the changes in household structure has indeed impacted income inequality. The change from traditional family to the nuclear family, the increase of single parent families as well as the aging population is causing an increasingly unequal distribution of wealth in Taiwan. The difference from existing literature is that most household lives in the city, and that this fact contributes to the unequal distribution of income.

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