經濟成長與政府支出之研究：分量迴歸的實證分析

Economic Growth and Government Expenditure: Evidence from Quantile Regression Model

林宜蓁

經濟成長 ； 政府支出 ； 分量迴歸法 ； Government Expenditure ； Economic Growth, ； Quantile Regression

臺中科技大學財政稅務系租稅管理與理財規劃碩士班學位論文

2016年

碩士

許義忠

繁體中文

經濟成長與政府支出之關係一直是各界關切的議題，現有研究經濟成長對政府支出之影響以華格納法則為主流，而文獻也多以傳統迴歸方法或因果關係檢驗。有別於過去之研究，本文利用跨國資料，以政府支出為被解釋變數，國內生產毛額、清廉印象指數、廣義貨幣供應量、國內生產毛額與清廉印象指數交乘項、國內生產毛額與廣義貨幣供應量交乘項為解釋變數，建立5個實證模型，分別以傳統迴歸方法及分量迴歸方法驗證經濟成長對政府支出之影響。由傳統迴歸法得出國內生產毛額估計係數均小於1，實證結果顯示華格納法則不存在，然而經濟成長與政府支出間仍呈現顯著正向關係，而清廉印象指數、廣義貨幣供應量、國內生產毛額與清廉印象指數交乘項、國內生產毛額與廣義貨幣供應量交乘項等變數在各模型中均為顯著正值。 雖以分量迴歸法同樣得出國內生產毛額估計係數均小於1，但是若進一步從各分量分析，國內生產毛額在中低分量，尤其是低分量對政府支出有顯著正向影響，在極端高分量則無解釋能力，至於廣義貨幣供應量及國內生產毛額與廣義貨幣供應量交乘項無論在低分量、中分量或高分量均與政府支出為顯著正相關。清廉印象指數及國內生產毛額與清廉印象指數交乘項除了在低分量，特別是極端低分量對政府支出無解釋能力外，在其餘分量下皆為顯著相關。

Economic growth and its effect on government expenditure has been an ongoing issue in debate, and it remains unsettled. Based on Wagner’s Law, this paper re-measures the relationship between government expenditure and economic growth by using 96 counties panel data over 2003 to 2012, which employed ordinary least squares (OLS) and quantile regression (QR) approach, based on Koenker and Bassett (1978). Quantile regression approach can analyze the effects across quantiles in the conditional distribution and reveal the effect of multiple points. The main contribution of this study is that a global point of view to explain whether economic growth affect the government expenditure. Our findings are as follows: (1) the elasticity of government expenditure does not exceed unity, which means Wagner’s law does not hold for the 96 countries, but the results present that economic growth are positively correlated with government expenditure; (2) the results also imply that the corruption of a country and financial surroundings can have impact on the relationship between government expenditure and economic growth.

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