大數據視角下的公共政策－網路輿情分析方法之應用與發展

Public Policy from the Big Data Perspective-The Application and Development of Internet Public Opinion Analysis

10.6581/lsgc.202109_74(9).0002

郭毓倫(Kyle, Yulun Kuo)

公共政策 ； 網路輿情分析 ； 大數據 ； 人工智慧 ； 自然語言處理 ； Public policy ； Internet public opinion analysis ； Big data ； Artificial intelligence ； Natural language process

中國地方自治

74卷9期（2021 / 09 / 01）

3 - 35

繁體中文

隨著智慧化手機的普及，行動通訊技術的普及也大幅改變了傳統民意的傳遞管道，透過行動網路上網的比率也逐年攀升。結合行動通訊及社群媒體的發展，網路輿情的重要性也與日俱增。雖然網路輿情資料在使用者匿名性及資料結構與可信度上常受到質疑，但無可否認地，透過迅速、大量、多元、即時性的資料搜集，能夠快速甚至同步對於政策議題進行定位及初步民意探詢，這些都是傳統民調方法難以達成的限制。快速地面對民意，積極回應群眾的治理原則，均是政策議題快速變遷的當代不可或缺的政治技能。隨著行動通訊及社群媒體的進化，民眾接觸網路管道的普及，資料搜集方法的精進，都對網路輿情資料的品質帶來本質上的改善。本文檢閱既有之技術方法與學術脈絡，具體指出網路輿情分析應用場域及限制，強化網路輿情分析方法的研究脈絡，期望能為傳統公共政策分析技術注入循證導向的新研究方法，本研究並且發現做為技術斷面的突破點，具有人工智慧特性的自然語言處理模型可應用在網路輿情分析之中，使傳統情緒分析進化至立場分析，更接近政策分析的需求。使公部門及研究學者在公共政策分析領域上能有多樣化的選擇，更多元全面客觀地對於公共政策過程進行評估與分析。

With the revolution of smart-phone, the information communication technology has also greatly changed the ways that public opinion delivered. In addition, the development of mobile communications and social media, the importance of internet public opinion (IPO) is also increasing day by day. Although IPO is often questioned by its anonymity, unstructured form and reliability, it is undeniable that through rapid, massive, diverse, and real-time IPO data collection, which could possibly to quickly, or even simultaneously, identifies the real-time focusing policy issues. However, those are all limitations that are barely impossible to confront in traditional polling methods. Dealing with public opinion as soon as possible and actively responding to the publics are the critical governance principles through the rapidly changing era. With the popularization of public access to the Internet, and the improvement of data collection methods, the quality of IPO data has been substantially improved. This article will review the existing technical methods and academic papers, specifically point out the application fields and limitations of internet public opinion analysis. On the other hand, this paper brings out an evidence-based research technique into traditional polls area. Thus, the policy maker and analyst can have diversified choices in public policy analysis. Besides, evaluation of the public opinion towards public policies can be more comprehensive and objective.

1. 李仲彬(2011)。「信任」在電子治理中所扮演的角色：以文獻檢閱為基礎的初探性分析。公共行政學報，39，105-147。
   連結：
2. 洪綾君,謝雨豆(2019)。太陽花學運中社群網站關鍵議題探索。電子商務研究，17(2)，85-111。
   連結：
3. 莊文忠(2018)。循證的政策制定與資料分析：挑戰與前瞻。文官制度季刊，10(2)，1-20。
   連結：
4. 陳雅玫(2016)。學生臉書使用與政治參與：以太陽花學運為例。中國行政評論，22(4)，61-91。
   連結：
5. 陶治中,陳亭愷(2016)。社群運算應用於網路輿情情感傾向分析之研究—以實施國道計程電子收費政策為例。運輸學刊，28(3)，295-334。
   連結：
6. 曾憲立,洪永泰,朱斌妤,黃東益,謝翠娟(2018)。多元民意調查方法的比較研究。調查研究—方法與應用，41，87-117。
   連結：
7. Allport, F. H. (1937). 〈Toward a science of public opinion〉. 《Public opinion quarterly》, 1(1), 7-23.
8. Alves, F.,Caeiro, S.,Azeiteiro, U. M.,De Kraker, J.,Kuijs, S.,Cörvers, R.,Offermans, A.(2014).Internet public opinion on climate change: a world views analysis of online reader comments.International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management
9. Bernasek, A.,Mongan, D. T.(2015).All you can pay: How companies use our data to empty our wallets.Bold Type Books.
10. Borgesius, Zuiderveen, F. J.(2020).Strengthening legal protection against discrimination by algorithms and artificial intelligence.The International Journal of Human Rights,1(22)
11. Ceron, A.,Negri, F.(2016).The “social side” of public policy: Monitoring online public opinion and its mobilization during the policy cycle.Policy & Internet,8(2),131-147.
12. Childs, H. L.(1965).Public Opinion Nature Formation and Role.D van nostrand company.
13. Christensen, H. S.,Karjalainen, M.,Nurminen, L.(2015).Does crowdsourcing legislation increase political legitimacy? The case of Avoin Ministeriö in Finland.Policy & Internet,7(1),25-45.
14. Clarke, A.,Margetts, H.(2014).Governments and citizens getting to know each other? Open, closed, and big data in public management reform.Policy & Internet,6(4),393-417.
15. Cohen, B. C.(1963).The press and, foreign policy.Princeton, NJ:Princeton University Press.
16. Cohen, Glenn,Evgeniou, T.,Gerke, S.,Minssen, T.(2020).The European artificial intelligence strategy: implications and challenges for digital health.The Lancet Digital Health,2(7),376-379.
17. Converse, P. E.(1987).Changing conceptions of public opinion in the political process.The Public Opinion Quarterly,51,S12-S24.
18. Crespi, B. J.(1989).Causes of assortative mating in arthropods.Animal Behaviour,38(6),980-1000.
19. Davidson, W. P.,Sills, D. L.(1968).Public opinion.International encyclopedia of the social sciences
20. Deibert, R. J.(2000).International plug'n play? Citizen activism, the Internet, and global public policy.International studies perspectives,1(3),255-272.
21. Dery, D.(1984).Problem definition in policy analysis.Univ Pr of Kansas.
22. Djeffal, C.(2019).AI, Democracy and the Law.The democratization of artificial intelligence: Net politics in the era of learning algorithms
23. Donsbach, W.(ed.),Traugott, M. W.(ed.)(2007).The SAGE handbook of public opinion research.Sage Publications, Inc..
24. Dunn, W. N.(2015).Public policy analysis.Routledge.
25. Easton, D.(1965).A systems analysis of political life.New York:John Wiley.
26. Ginsberg, J.,Mohebbi, M. H.,Patel, R. S.,Brammer, L.,Smolinski, M. S.,Brilliant, L.(2009).Detecting influenza epidemics using search engine query data.Nature,457(7232),1012-1014.
27. Glynn, C. J.,Herbst, S.,O’Keefe, G. J.,Shapiro, R. Y.,Jacobs, L. R.(1999).Public opinion and policymaking.Public Opinion
28. Greengard, S.(2009).The first internet president.Communications of the ACM,52(2),16-18.
29. Guba, E. G.,Lincoln, Y. S.(1981).Effective evaluation: Improving the usefulness of evaluation results through responsive and naturalistic approaches.Jossey-Bass.
30. Habermas, J.(1962).Structural transformation of the public sphere.Cambridge:
31. Hanekom, S. X.(1987).Public policy: Framework and instrument for action.MacMillan South Africa.
32. Herbst, S.(1993).The meaning of public opinion: citizens' constructions of political reality.Media, Culture & Society,15(3),437-454.
33. Hildreth, A.(2008).Attitudes of the Public toward Public Opinion Research and Polling.The SAGE handbook of public opinion research
34. Hogwood, B. W.,Peters, B. G.(1983).Policy dynamics.Wheatsheaf Books.
35. Hopkins, D. J.,King, G.(2010).A method of automated nonparametric content analysis for social science.American Journal of Political Science,54(1),229-247.
36. Hsiao, Naiyi,Liao, Zhou-Peng,Chen, Don-Yun(2018).From Naive Expectation to Realistic Progress: Government Applications of Big Data on Public Opinions Mining.Big Data in Computational Social Science and Humanities. Computational Social Sciences,Cham:
37. Ingraham, P. W.(1987).Toward more systematic consideration of policy design.Policy Studies Journal,15(4),611.
38. Jann, W.,Wegrich, K.(2007).Theories of the policy cycle.Handbook of public policy analysis: Theory, politics and methods
39. Jones, C. O.(1984).Introduction to the study of public policy.Brooks/Cole Pub Co..
40. Kaiser Foundation(2001).National Survey of the Role of Polls in Policy making.Menlo Park: CA:
41. Kim, D. S.,Kim, J. W.(2014).Public opinion sensing and trend analysis on social media: a study on nuclear power on Twitter.International Journal of Multimedia and Ubiquitous Engineering,9(11),373-384.
42. Laney, D.(2001).3D data management: Controlling data volume, velocity and variety.META group research note,6(70),1.
43. Lavrakas, P. J.(1987).Telephone survey methods: Sampling, selection, and supervision.Sage Publications, Inc..
44. Levenshus, A.(2010).Online relationship management in a presidential campaign: A case study of the Obama campaign's management of its internet-integrated grassroots effort.Journal of Public Relations Research,22(3),313-335.
45. Linder, S. H.,Peters, B. G.(1984).From social theory to policy design.Journal of Public Policy,237-259.
46. Lippmann, W. (1922). 《 Public opinion》 (1). Transaction Publishers.
47. Lu, R.,Zhu, H.,Liu, X.,Liu, J. K.,Shao, J.(2014).Toward efficient and privacy-preserving computing in big data era.IEEE Network,28(4),46-50.
48. Luo, Y.(2014).The Internet and agenda setting in China: The influence of online public opinion on media coverage and government policy.International Journal of Communication,8,24.
49. Ma, X.,Khansa, L.,Deng, Y.,Kim, S. S.(2013).Impact of prior reviews on the subsequent review process in reputation systems.Journal of Management Information Systems,30(3),279-310.
50. Manza, J.(ed.),Cook, F. L.(ed.),Page, B. I.(ed.)(2002).Navigating public opinion: Polls, policy, and the future of American democracy.Oxford University Press.
51. Margetts, H. Z.(2009).The Internet and public policy.Policy & Internet,1(1),1-21.
52. May, J. V.(ed.),Wildavsky, A. B.(ed.)(1979).The policy cycle.SAGE Publications, Inc..
53. Mayer, R. R.(1985).Policy and program planning: A developmental perspective.Prentice Hall.
54. McGregor, L.(2018).Accountability for Governance Choices in Artificial Intelligence: Afterword to Eyal Benvenisti’s Foreword.European Journal of International Law,29(4),1079-1085.
55. McKnight, D. H.,Chervany, N. L.(2001).Trust and distrust definitions: One bite at a time.Trust in Cyber-societies,Berlin, Heidelberg:
56. Morgan, D.,Fellows, C.,Guevara, H.(2008).Emergent approaches to focus group research.Handbook of emergent methods
57. Neijens, P.(2008).The Deliberating Public and Deliberative Polls.The SAGE Handbook of Public Opinion Research
58. O'Connor, B.,Balasubramanyan, R.,Routledge, B. R.,Smith, N. A.(2010).From tweets to polls: Linking text sentiment to public opinion time series.Proceedings of the Fourth International Conference on Weblogs and Social Media, ICWSM,Washington, DC, USA:
59. Oppermann (2019). 《Artificial Intelligence vs. Machine Learning vs. Deep Learning》、Retrieve from: https://towardsdatascience.com/artificial-intelligence-vs-machine-learning-vs-deep-learning-2210ba8cc4ac。
60. Page, B. I.,Shapiro, R. Y.(1983).Effects of public opinion on policy.The American political science review,175-190.
61. Price, V.,Neijens, P.(1998).Deliberative polls: toward improved measures of “informed” public opinion?.International Journal of Public Opinion Research,10(2),145-176.
62. Price, V.,Neijens, P.(1997).Opinion quality in public opinion research.International Journal of Public Opinion Research,9(4),336-360.
63. Rochefort, D. A.,Cobb, R. W.(1993).Problem definition, agenda access, and policy choice.Policy studies journal,21(1),56-71.
64. Rosa, E. A.,Freudenberg, W. R.,Dunlap, R. E.,Kraft, M. E.,Rosa, E. A.(1993).The historical development of public reactions in nuclear power: implications for nuclear waste policy.Public reactions to nuclear waste: Citizen's views of repository sitting
65. Rubin, G. J.,Chowdhury, A. K.,Amlôt, R.(2012).How to communicate with the public about chemical, biological, radiological, or nuclear terrorism: a systematic review of the literature.Biosecurity and bioterrorism: biodefense strategy, practice, and science,10(4),383-395.
66. Sætra, H. S.(2020).A shallow defence of a technocracy of artificial intelligence: Examining the political harms of algorithmic governance in the domain of government.Technology in Society,62,101-283.
67. Salem, F.(2017).The Arab Social Media Report 2017: Social Media and the Internet of Things: Towards Data-Driven.Policymaking in the Arab World,Dubai:
68. Schneider, A.,Ingram, H.(1990).Behavioral assumptions of policy tools.The Journal of Politics,52(2),510-529.
69. Schneider, A.,Ingram, H.(1993).Social construction of target populations: Implications for politics and policy.American political science review,87(2),334-347.
70. Segerberg, A.,Bennett, W. L.(2011).Social media and the organization of collective action: Using Twitter to explore the ecologies of two climate change protests.The Communication Review,14(3),197-215.
71. Shapiro, R. Y.(2011).Public opinion and American democracy.Public Opinion Quarterly,75(5),982-1017.
72. Slovic, P.(ed.)(2001).Smoking: Risk, perception, and policy.Sage publications.
73. Slovic, P.,Fischhoff, B.,Lichtenstein, S.(1982).Why study risk perception?.Risk analysis,2(2),83-93.
74. Smith, T. B.(1973).The policy implementation process.Policy sciences,4(2),197-209.
75. Starling, Grover(1988).Strategies for Policy Making.Chicago, IL:The Dorsey Press.
76. Tan, C. M.,Barnett, D. J.,Stolz, A. J.,Links, J. M.(2011).Radiological incident preparedness: planning at the local level.Disaster medicine and public health preparedness,5(S1),S151-S158.
77. Tu,Shih,Hsiao,Kuo(2018).Towards Evidence-Based Policy Deliberation for Environmental Justice - The Case Study of Civil Forums on Nuclear Waste in Taiwan.The 2019 NATSA 2019 Annual Conference,Seattle:
78. Vehovar, V.,Manfreda, K. L.(2008).Overview: online surveys.The SAGE handbook of online research methods
79. Vining, A. R.,Weimer, D. L.(1999).Inefficiency in public organizations.International Public Management Journal,2(1),1-24.
80. 丘昌泰,朱志宏(1995).政策規劃.臺北:國立空中大學.
81. 吳定(2017).公共政策.臺北:五南圖書出版股份有限公司.
82. 呂建億(2015)。國立政治大學公共行政研究所。
83. 李昱穎(2019)。國立政治大學金融學系研究所。
84. 林水波(1999).公共政策論衡.臺北:智勝文化事業有限公司.
85. 林彥廷(2016)。東海大學政治學系。
86. 林水波,張世賢(2006).公共政策.臺北:五南圖書出版股份有限公司.
87. 柯三吉(1998).公共政策：理論方法與台灣經驗.臺北:時英出版社.
88. 馬國勳（2020）。《會上網，就等於善用科技？ 「量」與「質」的數位落差，關於數位文化資本》。取自：https://npost.tw/archives/58923。檢閱日期：2021年 1 月 8 日
89. 國立政治大學民主創新治理中心(2020)。台電公司委託研究案台電公司委託研究案,臺北:台電公司。
90. 國家發展委員會（2018）。 《2018 年持有手機民眾數位機會調查報告》。臺北：國家發展委員會。
91. 陳向明(2004).社會科學質的研究.臺北:五南圖書出版股份有限公司.
92. 陳俊明(2014).數位國家治理：國情分析架構與方法.臺北:國家發展委員會.
93. 陳敦源,蕭乃沂(2017).Web 2.0 時代的民意探勘：政府部門網路輿情分析的概念與實務.臺北:國家發展委員會.
94. 項靖(2016)。國家發展委員會委託研析報告國家發展委員會委託研析報告,國家發展委員會。
95. 黃東益(2020)。科技部合作研究計畫科技部合作研究計畫,科技部。
96. 黃華興(2019)。台灣大學經濟學研究所。
97. 黃筠婷(2019)。政治大學科技管理與智慧財產研究所。
98. 廖興中(2019).數位國情架構精進調查與政府數位成熟度評估.臺北:國家發展委員會.
99. 熊澄宇(2003)。傳播學十大經典解讀。清華大學學報：哲學社會科學版，18(5)，23-37。
100. 蕭乃沂(2018)。教育部委託報告教育部委託報告,教育部。

1. 謝佳容,蔡家梅,陳美麗,林雅婷,李麗燕(2022)。探討護理學生臨床實習受新冠肺炎衝擊時的心理感受與因應經驗。中華心理衛生學刊，35(1)，31-65。
2. (2023)。大眾與社群媒體如何形塑公眾對再生能源的認知—以框架理論檢視新聞報導及PTT論壇為例。臺灣能源期刊，10(3)，213-234。
3. (2023)。民眾對國小海洋教育政策關注度之大數據分析。傳播管理學刊，24(1)，1-34。