價格體制崩潰對金融匯率動態走勢的影響－中立干預操作雙元匯率制度下的分析

The Impact of Price Regime Collapse on the Dynamics path of Financial Exchange Rates under the Neutral Intervention Operation Dual Exchange Rates System

廖培賢(Peir-Shyan Liaw)；謝政佑(Zheng-You Hsieh)

價格體制崩潰 ； 中立干預操作雙元匯率制度 ； 金融匯率 ； 資本移動程度 ； price regime collapsing ； neutral intervention operation dual exchange rate system ； financial exchange rates ； capital mobility degree

東海管理評論

17卷1期（2015 / 07 / 01）

1 - 51

繁體中文

本文物價管制的理論架構，係以Gardner(1984)、Lai et al.(1989)、賴景昌(1994)、����������������(2000)等的中立干預操作雙元匯率制度模型做為基本架構，納入商品市場需求面的有利衝擊(beneficial shock)，進而建構一個中立干預操作雙元匯率制度的物價管制模型，藉以討論：一旦經濟體系遭逢商品市場需求面的有利衝擊，貨幣當局為了防止本國物價水準進一步上漲，進而利用壓低名目貨幣供給的措施將本國物價水準釘住在某一固定水準的情況下，相關總體經濟變數所呈現的動態調整風貌。研究結果發現：(1)一旦本國商品市場需求面有利衝擊的爆發帶動本國物價水準節節升高時，則貨幣當局所能忍受的本國物價上限門檻水準不僅與本國物價體制崩潰時機有關，也是決定本國物價體制是否會崩潰的重要關鍵樞紐因素，(2)一旦貨幣當局所能忍受的本國物價上限門檻水準介於期初的本國物價水準與新的長期均衡本國物價水準之間時，(A)資本移動程度的相對大小、(B)貨幣當局所能忍受的本國物價上限門檻水準的高低兩項重要因素，在決定本國物價管制過程中相關總體經濟變數動態調整型態的決定因子中占了舉足輕重的角色。

This paper constructs a neutral intervention operation model of dual exchange rates regime which is characterized by the Gardner (1984), Lai (1994) and Liaw (2000). We use the ＂implicit function technique＂ of first generation regime collapsing, which is offered by Chang and Lai (1990) to analyze when the economy faces a beneficial shock of the commodity market demand side and the monetary authority tends to curb the rising price level. Under the former economic circumstances, what will be the dynamic effect of the relevant macroeconomic variables if the monetary authority executes the deflationary monetary policy? The major findings are (1) not only the price ceiling threshold level is the key factor of price regime collapsing, but also is the important determinant of the price regime collapsing whether or not?(2) if the price ceiling threshold level is between the initial price level and the new long run equilibrium price level, then the relative amplitude of ＂capital mobility degree＂ and the price ceiling threshold level are the two key factors to decide the dynamic path of the relevant macroeconomic variables.

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