The Life Cycle of Evolution: A Macro-Technological Analysis of Civilization's Progress

William E. Halal

Journal of Futures Studies

9卷1期（2004 / 08 / 01）

59 - 74

英文

A “macro-technological analysis” is presented for better understanding that rather mysterious process by which life evolved into diverse biological species, produced humankind, founded civilization, and is now creating a knowledge-based, global society entering space. We first examine how each stage of civilization is distinguished by a unique “technical base,” and how a “chain of causality” drives this evolutionary process. Then we show that seven waves of technological innovation cause the rise and fall of every more powerful stages, forming a “Life Cycle of Evolution” roughly comparable to the life cycles of all organisms. I conclude by summarizing what has been learned from this analysis into three principles comprising a general model of evolution. A striking implication of this model is that social progress is today moving beyond knowledge toward “technologies of consciousness” for the same reason previous eras have emerged – out of the sheer necessity to cope with still greater challenges.