藥物濫用者有無繼續施用傾向量表之量化修正研究

The Study for Quantitative Modification of Substance Abuser Reabuse Risk Assessment Scale

10.29607/ZHWHGX.200806.0002

林明傑(Min-Chieh Lin)

毒品犯罪者 ； 吸毒犯 ； 藥物濫用 ； 再犯 ； 再犯危險評估 ； 再犯危險因子 ； Drug Abuse ； Substance Abuse ； Recidivism ； Risk Assessment ； Risk Marker

犯罪學期刊

11卷1期（2008 / 06 / 01）

45 - 74

繁體中文

本研究將檢視現行使用之「有無繼續施用傾向評估紀錄表」，以統計精算之方法篩選各變項與再犯毒品犯罪與否之預測力大小，以發展更有科學研究爲基礎之毒品再犯危險評估量表。本研究以台中看守所附設觀察勒戒處所於90年7月、10月及12月出所之受觀察勒戒者爲樣本，追蹤其於95年9月有無再犯情況爲依變項來檢測該表各題項之再犯預測力。研究發現四年內再犯毒品相關罪名之再犯率爲56.9%，曾短期再犯、戒斷症狀、多重藥物使用、注射使用、社會功能及支持系統等六項具有預測力及正相關。本研究以Burgess法分別追蹤一年、二年、三年、及四年及各所篩選顯著之因素建立量表，發現預測效度各爲r=.156(ROC=.611)、r=.162(ROC=.588)、r=.271(ROC=.648)、及r=.391(ROC=.723)。而所修改之量表以預測出所後三與四年之再犯率爲主。相關之建議亦在討論中。

This study was to collect the currently used risk assessment tool to check the predictive validity, and then to establish the more precise re-abuse risk assessment scale. The substance abusers released from Taichung Observation and Rehabilitation House at 3 months of 2001 were observed their traits and were tracked whether they re-abused or not till October, 2006. It was found that the recidivism rate within 4 years after release was 56.9%, and the withdrawal symptom, re-abuse in short, multiple drug abuse, abuse by injection, social function, and support system could significantly predict and correlate to the re-abuse, and prior drug abuse record and the length of abuse term could significantly correlate to the re-abuse. The Pearson's r and ROC of the modified risk assessment scale were found r=.156 (ROC=.611), r=.162(ROC=.588), r=.271(ROC=.648), and r=.391(ROC=.723) for 1, 2, 3, and 4 years, respectively. The new modified risk assessment scale were formed to predict 3 and 4 years after the confined rehabilitation. Suggestions were also presented in this study.

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