影響電影票房價值因素之探討－以國產電影為例

Factors Effecting on the Value of Taiwanese Motion Pictures

林谷峻(Ku-Jun Lin)；羅雁紅(Yen-Hung Lo)；吳晉賢(Chin-Hsien Wu)

文化創意產業 ； 國產電影 ； 票房收入 ； 價值 ； Cultural and Creative Industry ； Taiwanese Motion Pictures ； Box Office Revenue ； Value

藝術學報

94期（2014 / 04 / 01）

167 - 201

繁體中文

本研究探討電影票房價值形成因素，建立預測模型，預測國產電影票房後比較預測值與實際票房的差異，提供投資人投資與電影工作者拍攝時的決策參考。經蒐集2002年至2012年上映的國產電影資料，以迴歸模型的方式分析，研究結果發現「演員知名度」、「上映時機」，是否為「續集」與「知名導演」等因素顯著影響電影票房；樣本預測票房之平均數可達實際票房的56.40%。研究結果可提升對電影票房的預測能力。後續研究建議可將如「導演拍攝手法」，「題材、故事以及影片如何呈現」等質化因素予以分類並設定標準，進一步解碼電影價值創造之來源。

The research discusses the elements that create film value. We construct a forecasting model then compare actual and estimated revenues of box offices. The result can provide information as a reference to investors and relevant movie workers for investing and production references. We use a regression model to analyze the Taiwanese films data from 2002 to 2012. We found components such as ＂award winner (actor/actress)＂, ＂release timing＂, ＂series＂ and ＂award winner (directors)＂ have significant influences on the performance of box offices. The average estimated revenues of box office is 56.40% of the actual ones. The result can increase the predicting power of film revenues of box office. We suggest further study can address on the classification and setting standards for qualitative components, such as ＂shooting technique＂ and ＂type of story and ways of demonstration＂, then further decoding the film value.

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