宗族社會下政治版圖變動之調查研究：以1994-2022年金門縣長選舉為例

A Study on the Changes of the Political Landscape under Clan Society: A Case Study of the Kinmen County Mayor Elections during 1994-2022

10.6712/JCPA.202406_(34).0006

王宏男(Hung-Nan Wang)

宗族 ； 政治版圖 ； EI模型 ； 金門縣長選舉 ； Clan ； Political Landscape ； EI Model ； Kinmen County Mayor Elections

中華行政學報

34期（2024 / 06 / 30）

97 - 125

繁體中文;英文

金門相較台灣其他縣市是一較傳統宗族的社會結構，本文將宗族嵌入政治版圖作選舉研究，以1994至2022年歷屆八次的《金門縣選舉實錄》數據，採改良後Gary King的EI模型，植入6鄉鎮、37村里政治版圖之強度與穩定度研究，解析版圖之間選民投票結果的變化。在八屆的金門縣長選舉中發現：首先，6鄉鎮強度與穩定度。島東4個村里分別是正義里、山外里、新湖里與何斗里，在強度上對陳姓候選人支持較為明顯；穩定度集中在6鄉鎮中的島東的金湖鎮與金沙鎮。最後，37村里強度與穩定度。強度以湖埔村、何斗里、正義里、山外里、新湖里與小坵村是歷屆選舉中相較其他村里對陳姓候選人被視為較為支持村里；穩定度的表現上，汶沙里、正義里、盤山村與三山里對陳姓候選人忠誠度相對其他村里較高。透過本研究將6鄉鎮與37個村里之強度與穩定相比較分析發現，過去八屆縣長選舉表現，陳姓政治版圖集中在「島東」且又以「正義里」與「何斗里」對陳姓候選人強度與穩定度最高。

Compared to other counties in Taiwan, Kinmen has a relatively traditional clan society. This study embeds clans in Kinmen into the political landscape to investigate the elections in the county, adopting data from the "Kinmen County Election Record" and covering eight elections in Kinmen County from 1994to 2022. Using a modified version of Gary King's ecological inference (EI) model, the strength and stability of the political landscape in 6 townships and 37 villages were studied, and the changes in the voting results across the political landscape were analyzed. From the eight Kinmen County mayor elections, the findings are as follows. First, in terms of the strength and stability of support in the six townships, four villages on the east side of the island, namely, Jhengyi Village, Shanwai Village, Sinhu Village, and Hodo Village, are clearly inclined to support candidates of the Chen clan. Regarding the stability of support, Chinhu Township and Chinsha Township stand out of the six townships on the east side of the island. Finally, in terms of the strength and stability of support in the 37 villages, Hupu Village, Hodo Village, Jhengyi Village, Shanwai Village, Sinhu Village, and Hsiaochiu Village were stronger supporters of candidates of the Chen clan than other villages in previous elections. In addition, with respect to stability, Wensha Village, Jhengyi Village, Panshan Village, and Sanshan Village indicated a relatively higher degree of loyalty to candidates of the Chen clan compared to other villages.Through a comparison and analysis of 6 townships and 37 villages in Kinmen County, this study found that in the previous eight mayor elections, the political landscape for candidates of the Chen clan is concentrated on the east side of the island, and Jhengyi Village and Hodo Village evince the highest levels of strong and stable support for these candidates.