1978-1997大陸國有銀行貸款行為之實證研究

An Empirical Analysis of State Bank Loans in Mainland China: 1978-1997

趙學維(Thomas Hsueh-Wei Chao)

credit plan ； loan quota ； state banks

嘉南學報（人文類）

39期（2013 / 12 / 01）

226 - 239

繁體中文

This study analyzes the inter-provincial distribution of state bank loans in mainland China between 1978 and 1997. There are two major findings in this paper: (1)The siphoning of savings deposit from the rural/agricultural sector into the urban/industrial sector is actually a part of the national credit plan's redistribution of funds rather than a re-allocation of funds within a single province. (2) Provinces with higher proportion of industrial output from state-owned enterprises (SOE) and provinces with lower SOE profit growth rates tend to receive higher loan quotas. During the period under study, state banks in mainland China tend to transfer fast growing resident savings deposit into low interest loans to urban SOEs whose profitability have been declining. SOEs in the three metropolitan areas of Beijing, Tianjin, and Shanghai are the major beneficiaries.

1. 黃金老，「優化貸款限額控制的四項措施」，財經網博客，2010 年5 月21 日，http://blog.caijing.com.cn/expert_article-58-6500.shtml
2. 國家統計局，新中國五十年統計資料匯編。北京：中國統計出版社，1999
3. 張颯，「監管層醞釀改進存貸比考核」，東方早報（上海），2013 年1 月31 日
4. Deyo, Frederic C.(ed.)(1987).The Political Economy of the New Asian Industrialism.Ithaca:Cornell University Press.
5. Fan, Qimiao(ed.),Nolan, Peter(ed.)(1994).China's Economic Reforms: The Costs and Benefits of Incrementalism.New York:St. Martin's Press.
6. Kennedy, Peter(1998).A Guide To Econometrics.Oxford, Grande-Bretagne:Blackwell.
7. Lardy, Nicholas(1998).China's Unfinished Economic Revolution.Washington, D.C.:The Brookings Institution.
8. Lardy, Nicholas(1996).The Role of the People's Bank of China in the Interregional Redistribution of Funds: Implications for Guangdong Province.International Symposium on Financial Reforms and Developments of the Non-State Sector in China,Guangzhou, China:
9. Li, Hongbin(2003).Government's budget constraint, competition, and privatization: evidence from China's rural industry.Journal of Comparative Economics,31,486-502.
10. Montes-Negret, Fernando(1995).China's Credit Plan: An Overview.Oxford Review of Economic Policy,11(4),25-42.
11. Park, Albert,Sehrt, Kaja(2001).Tests of financial intermediation and banking reform in China.Journal of Comparative Economics,29,608-644.
12. Ramo, Joshua C.(2004).The Beijing Consensus.London:Foreign Policy Center.
13. Shih, Victor(2004).Factions Matter: personal networks and the distribution of bank loans in China.Journal of Contemporary China,13(38),3-19.
14. Steinfeld, Edward S.(1998).Forging Reform in China: The Fate of State-owned Industry.New York:Cambridge University Press.
15. Wade, Robert(1990).Governing the market: economic theory and the role of government in East Asian Industrialization.Princeton, N.J.:Princeton University Press.
16. Walter, Carl E.,Howie, Fraser J. T.(2011).Red Capitalism: The fragile financial foundation of China's extraordinary rise.Singapore:John Wiley & Sons (Asia).
17. Wei, Shang-Jin,Wang, Tao(1997).The Siamese Twins: Do State-Owned Banks Favor State-Owned Enterprises in China?.China Economic Review,8(1),19-29.
18. 丁樹範編(2002)。胡錦濤時代的挑戰。台北:新新聞文化。
19. 中國金融學會。中國金融年鑑。
20. 吳敬璉(2005)。當代中國經濟改革：探索中國經濟順利轉型的秘密。台北:麥格羅希爾。
21. 周正慶(1993)。中國貨幣政策研究。北京:中國金融出版社。
22. 林青松編、威廉伯德編(1994)。中國鄉鎮企業的歷史性崛起：結構發展與改革。香港:牛津大學出版社。
23. 秦池江編(1993)。金融：體制變遷與鬆緊轉換。北京:中國財經出版社。
24. 國家統計局(1996)。改革開放十七年的中國地區經濟。北京:中國統計出版社。
25. 謝平(1996)。中國金融制度的選擇。上海:遠東出版社。