向陽森林遊樂區事件型山崩潛感分析之研究

Study on the Analysis of Event Type Landslide Potential in Xiangyang Forest Recreation Area

彭怡靜(Yi-Jing Peng)；徐弘明(Hong-Min Shu)；許中立(Chung-Li Hsu)

山崩潛感分析 ； 向陽森林遊樂區 ； 羅吉斯迴歸模型 ； 促崩因子 ； Potential landslide sensation analysis ； Xiangyang Forest Recreation Area ； Logistic regression model ； Acceleration factor

坡地防災學報

19卷2期（2020 / 12 / 01）

22 - 34

繁體中文

山崩潛感分析雖已有很多研究成果被提出，但甚少針對事件型而將降雨特性融入其中加以討論者，因此本文乃以台灣南橫公路中點的向陽森林遊樂區為例，依地理資訊系統的篩選分析技術結合羅吉斯迴歸模型方法，探討本區的促崩因子並得到潛感圖資，經比對結果尚能符合現況，將可提供日後管理機關開發利用時的參考。

Although many research results have been proposed for potential landslide sensation analysis, few of them are discussed in terms of event type. Therefore, this paper takes the Xiangyang Forest Recreation Area at the midpoint of Taiwan's Nanheng Highway as an example. Based on the geographic information system's screening analysis technology combined with the Logistic regression model method, this paper explores the accretion factor in this area and obtains the potential map. The results are still in line with the current situation and will provide a reference for the development and utilization of future management agencies.