風險承擔決策的多重參考點：企業研發活動的實證

The Multiple-points of Risk-taking Decision: Evidence from Corporate R&D Activities

10.3966/199687602018021101004

曾真真(Jen Jen Tseng)；簡俊成(Chun-Cheng Chien)

研發投資 ； 風險承擔 ； 破產風險 ； 參考點 ； R&D investment ； risk-taking ； bankruptcy risk ； reference points

組織與管理

11卷1期（2018 / 02 / 01）

101 - 125

繁體中文

單一參考點是個人和組織風險承擔決策相關文獻的核心論述，這些文獻以參考點將決策結果區分為利得或損失，並且主張決策者是否承擔風險係基於對利得或損失的回應。然而，近期的文獻開始致力於發掘多重參考點，為瞭解多重參考點對風險承擔決策的影響，本研究整合企業行為及前景理論，並納入不對稱及非線性的考量。以2009至2014年間上市（櫃）之電子資訊業的2,974筆資料檢驗多重參考點的決策模型，研究結果發現，當實際績效超越歷史績效時，則社會比較績效與R&D投資呈U型關係；相對地，實際績效低於歷史績效時，則破產風險與R&D投資呈倒U型關係。

The single reference point is central to literatures of individual & organizational risk-taking decision. These researches adopted a single reference point separating regions of gain from regions of loss, and advocated that risk-taking is responsive to changes in gains & losses. However, recent literatures have begun to explore multiple reference points within risk-taking. To gain a better understanding of how multiple reference points affect the risk-taking decision, this study integrates the concepts of behavior theory & prospect theory to represent the context dependence in risk-taking behavior by incorporating asymmetric & nonlinear responses. We thus examine the multiple reference points of risk-taking decision by using 2,974 public offering firms as data set from Taiwanese electronics manufacturing industry from 2009 to 2014. Empirical analysis results show that the social-aspiration performance and R&D investment presents U-shape relationship when the actual performance exceeds the historical performance. In contrast, there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between the bankruptcy risk and R&D investment when the actual performance below the historical-aspiration performance.

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