A Household Loss Model for Debris Flow

土石流家戶災害損失模型之建立

10.29868/JSRD.201006.0002

李欣輯(Hsin-Chi Li)；楊惠萱(Hui-Hsuan Yang)

土石流 ； 山崩地滑 ； 損失評估 ； 脆弱性分析 ； Debris flow ； landslide ； loss assessment ； vulnerability analysis

社會與區域發展學報

2卷2期（2010 / 06 / 01）

29 - 52

英文

本研究依據國家災害防救科技中心2005年之坡地災害調查問卷建立土石流家戶損失模型。問卷內容包括家戶人數題組、家戶損失題組、受災經驗題組、風險知覺題組等，調查樣本爲依據社會司所提供之坡地災害受災名冊抽樣而得，調查完之有效樣本共241筆。經分析得知土石掩埋的面積、掩埋高度、受災經驗、家庭人口數、建築材料、社區備災行爲及住宅類型（純住宅）等因子與家戶損失均呈高度的顯著相關，因此本研究用以建立家戶損失的評估模型。此模型除了應用於家戶損失計算外，亦可透過各因子分析的結果提供有用的防災方法例如：家戶損失的量化可提高居民的風險知覺，進而強化其備災行爲災害評估模組的建立便於政府進行各類防災工程之成本效益分析；透過災前家庭人口數的減少（災前的疏散難）或平時的社區備災工作（社區預警系統、水土保持工程）都可有效降低坡地災害對家戶造成的損失。

This study proposed a debris flow loss model using the data from a survey conducted by the National Center for Disaster Reduction (NCDR) (2005). The sample focused on a debris flow victim list provided by the social welfare department in Taiwan. In total, 241 victims were recruited, all of whom were the main financial supporters of their household. A set of standardized questionnaires containing information with regards to demographic background, financial damage and disaster experiences as well as risk perception were filled in by the participants. A set of vulnerability indices for debris flow loss was used in the proposed model. They were the total area covered by the debris flow, the height of debris flow coverage, the experience of the disaster, the type of residential building, the number of people per household, the community disaster preparedness, and the type of construction material. The results of the regression model showed that all the variables included were statistically significant. The coverage area, the height of debris flow coverage, the number of past disasters, the number of people per household and type of construction materials (RC) were positively associated with financial loss. Furthermore, this study provides many useful policies for slopeland disaster prevention, such as quantifying household loss to help the public engage in disaster mitigation, assessing loss to help the government create appropriate policies and choose the best prevention-mitigation plans, evacuating residents who live in hazard-prone areas, community preparedness, and so on.

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