2012年世界末日預言有誤？－兼論馬雅歷史重新斷代問題

Is the 2012 Doomsday Prediction Correct?-Should the Mayan Calendar be Rewritten?

10.7094/BAFHS.201012.0031

張廷(Ting Chang)

2012年世界末日預言 ； 馬雅長紀年法 ； GMT ； 年代換算問題 ； 德勒斯登手繪書本 ； 2012Doomsday ； the Long Count ； GMT-Correlation ； the problem of Converting Long Count Years into Gregorian Calendar ； Dresden Codex

中華科技史學會學刊

15期（2010 / 12 / 01）

31 - 37

繁體中文

最近在全球鬧得沸沸揚揚的2012年世界末日預言，係採用公元250~900年間古馬雅人盛行的《長紀年法》，再換算成公元年代。姑且不論世界末日是否真的會在2012年發生，本文認為2012年這個年代確實是有誤的，關鍵在於考古學家長年使用的GMT標準本身有誤，使得馬雅《長紀年法》年份換算成《格列戈里曆》（西曆）年代的數值並不符合公元2012年。 其次，本文建議以收藏在德國，擁有完整馬雅天文紀錄的《德勒斯登手繪書本》來與傳統GMT做日蝕、月蝕、金星亮度的年代比對與校正。根據前人以及作者的初步結論是GMT確實不準確，與《德勒斯登手繪本》有相當大的年代誤差，導致我們應重新一一矯正馬雅《長紀年法》的年代換算數值，進而衝擊我們對於馬雅古史整體的年代知識。

The everlasting popularity of 2012 Doomsday prophecy has its root from the Long Count calendar used by the Mayans between 250A.D. and 900A.D. The focus of this essay is not to discuss whether the Doomsday would really happen, since it is not my specialty. My main concern is that whether the year of 2012 is correct in view of the Gregorian Calendar. The GMT Correlation, which developed by three scholars-Goodman, Martinez and Thompson near a century ago and widely accepted by the Mayanist, its correlation can not actually convert 5126 (of Long Count) into the year 2012 ( of Gregorian Calendar).Secondly, this essay suggests using the Dresden Codex which owns complete astronomical record, to make a comparison with existing GMT Correlation. According to former scholars' and my calculation, the GMT does show incorrect on many aspects and dates, it reveals quite differences from those astronomical data of the Dresden Codex-even on many days with prominent astronomical phenomena. By drawing this conclusion, I am afraid that the Mayanists had to adjust all existing historical date of Mayan monuments, books & records, and therefore, inevitably influence our date knowledge about whole Mayan history.

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