以存活分析探討不同學歷職業球員之運動生涯

Chien-Lin Chen; Kuo-Feng Tseng; Cheng-Hsun Hsieh; Yen-Kuang Lin

doi:10.6547/tassm.202412_24(2).0007

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P383 - 404

社会科学 > 体育学
社会科学 > 管理学

DOI： 10.6547/tassm

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以存活分析探讨不同学历职业球员之运动生涯

Comparison of Career Longevity and Performance between High School and College Graduates in Professional Baseball Players: A Survival Analysis Approach

陈建霖(Chien-Lin Chen) ；曾国峰(Kuo-Feng Tseng) ；谢承勳(Cheng-Hsun Hsieh) ；林彦光(Yen-Kuang Lin)

台湾体育运动管理学报； 24 卷 2 期 (2024 / 12 / 01) ， P383 - 404

繁体中文;英文 DOI： 10.6547/tassm.202412_24(2).0007

职业棒球；高中生选秀；运动生涯； professional baseball ； high school draft ； athletic career

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摘要 │ 参考文献 (49)

摘要〈TOP〉

并列摘要〈TOP〉

Purpose: This study aims to investigate the differences in the careers of Taiwanese professional baseball players between those selected in the high school draft and those in the college draft, and whether these differences are influenced by career performance. Methods: Collecting data from the official website from 2013 to 2022, this study compares the education level at the time players were selected, as well as thirteen statistics for hitters and twelve for pitchers. In this study, the definition of survival status based on players who continued playing in 2022; those without game data in 2022 were considered to have ended their athletic careers. We used the R statistical analysis software compared the survival curves of high-school draft and college draft hitters and pitchers, and We applied for Cox proportional hazard models to examine the impacts of these two draft types on survival curves of their performance. Results: There were significant differences in the athletic careers of high-school draft hitters (57 players) compared to college draft hitters (126 players) (p < .001), with differences observed in the number of appearances and runs scored (p < .05). However, there were no significant differences in the athletic careers of high-school draft pitchers (47 players) compared to college draft pitchers (126 players) (p > .05). Conclusion: Based on the results of this study, the difference between high school draft and college draft players lies not in their athletic performance but in the length of their athletic careers. The lack of a significant effect on players' performance and career length may be because professional players are expected not only to excel in performance but also to engage effectively with fans, which can boost ticket and merchandise sales. By doing so, players may be able to extend their professional careers. On the other hand, the high demands of a pitcher's rotation, leading to a higher risk of injury, could explain why this study did not find a significant difference in the results. Therefore, this study recommend that high-school draft fielders may enroll the college for one to two years before attending the CPBL draft, while high-school draft pitchers with professional-level skills can participate in CPBL draft directly. Originality/value:1.Another essential point of this study is the influence of compulsory military service. 2.While many countries allow high-school draftees to participate in the draft, in Taiwan, high school students are restricted by mandatory military service, resulting in different career development paths. Therefore, based on our research results, we can offer selection strategies for professional coaches.

参考文献 ( 49 ) 〈TOP〉

方进义, C.-Y.,郑志富, C-F.,林欣慧, S.-H.(2013)。中华职棒野手球员的国籍、年资、球队效果与换队频率对其绩效之影响：1990 年到 2010 年。体育学报，46(3)，291-302。
连结：
朱柏璁, B.-T.,叶公鼎, K.-T.(2020)。中华职棒大联盟打者薪资预测模型之建构。台湾体育运动管理学报，20(1)，1-27。
连结：
李依颖, Y.-L.,胡林焕, L.-H.,吕宛蓁, W.-C.(2019)。中华职棒转队球员表现研究。台湾体育学术研究，67，19-36。
连结：
林文斌, W.-P.,杨世杰, S.-C.,陈美燕, M.-Y.(2021)。知彼知己，百战不殆：数据科学应用於棒球情蒐与技战术分析。中华体育季刊，35(4)，227-237。
连结：
胡林焕, L.-H.,康正男, C.-N.(2019)。中华职棒联盟球员复数合约签约前後效率分析。体育学报，52(1)，95-107。
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