應用聯立方程模式分析台灣地區機動車輛需求

Analysis of Automobile Demand in Taiwan-Application of Simultaneous-Equations Model

10.29973/JCSA.200707.0006

汪志忠(Chi-Chung Wang)

機動車輛需求 ； 聯立方程 ； 油價 ； automobile demand ； simultaneous-equations ； oil price

中國統計學報

45卷3期（2007 / 07 / 01）

320 - 339

繁體中文

機動車輛需求的動態特性對於國家經濟與未來能源需求預測是相當關鍵的。本研究主要是考慮供給與需求的互動關係，使用聯立方程系統建立台灣地區機動車輛需求的動態模擬模式，同時由於台灣地區機車使用的特殊性，機車需求亦納入系統中。本研究的動態模擬模式有別於國內早期的機動車輛需求預測的研究，模式包含有當期與前期的汽車數、機車數、經濟、油價與管理變數，且評估結果顯示模擬模式有非常良好的績效。最後，假設1996-2005年間可能發生的高、低油價情境與經濟成長，應用此模式模擬台灣地區未來10年的機動車輛需求。

The dynamic characteristics of automobile demand are critical for national economic and energy prediction. In this paper, a dynamic automobile demand simulation model is developed utilizing a simultaneous-equations system. The system considers the interaction between supply and demand and motorcycle demand is taken into consideration. Although forecasting automobile demand has been previously investigated, it has not been within such a dynamic simulation framework in Taiwan. Our model includes the current and lagged auto and motorcycle quantity, economic, oil price and management variables. Relevant tests are applied to evaluate the simulation model performance and results show its high capability. Finally, a number of simulation experiments considering various oil price and economic growth scenarios for 1996-2005 are demonstrated.

1. 周榮昌、翁美娟(2001)。家戶小客車持有與使用模式之建立。運輸學刊，13(3)，99-120。
   連結：
2. 周榮昌、陳志成(2003)。台中市家戶機動車輛需求模式之研究－間斷性／連結性混合模式之應用。運輸計劃季刊，32(2)，319-340。
   連結：
3. 周榮昌、陳志成、翁美娟(2004)。台灣地區家戶汽機車相互持有與使用間的關係－Ordered Bivariate Probit與SURE模式之應用。運輸計劃季刊，33(4)，625-648。
   連結：
4. 周榮昌、劉佑興、王薇晴(2004)。家戶機動車輛持有狀態與使用需求模式之研究。運輸計劃季刊，33(1)，83-114。
   連結：
5. 賴文泰、呂錦隆、姜渝生(2006)。臺灣地區多車輛家戶小客車、機車持有與使用實證模型之研究。運輸計劃季刊，35(3)，309-336。
   連結：
6. Abu-Eisheh, S.A.,Mannering, F.(2002).Forecasting automobile demand for economies in transition: a dynamic simultaneous-equation system approach.Transportation Planning and Technology,25,311-331.
7. Balsas, C. J. L.(2003).Sustainable transportation planning on college campuses.Transport Policy,10,35-49.
8. Barnett, S.,Calika, N. N.,Chua, D.,Kanaan, O.,Zavadjil, M.(1998).The Journal of Monetary Fund.Middle East Department.
9. Berkovec, J.,Rust, J.(1985).A Nested Logit Model of Automobile Holdings for One Vehicle, Households.Transportation Research,19(4),275-285.
10. Carlson, R. L.,Umble, M. M.(1980).Statistical demand functions for automobiles and their use for forecasting in an energy crisis.The Journal of business,53(2),193-204.
11. Chen, Y. J.(2001).Modeling the Impacts of Vacancy Taxes on the Taiwan Housing Market.Proceedings of the National Science Council, Republic of China Part C: Humanities and Social Sciences,11(2),148-155.
12. Chin, A.,Smith, P.(1997).Automobile Ownership and Government Policy: The Economics of Singapore`s Vehicle Quota Scheme.Transportation Research Part: A,31,129-140.
13. Chow, G. C.(1957).Demand for Automobiles in the United States.Amsterdam:North Holland Publishing Company.
14. Chow, G. C.,Arnold C. Harberger (ed.)(1960).The Demand for Durable Goods.Chicago:University of Chicago Press.
15. Dargay, J.,Gately, D.(1999).Income`s effect on car and vehicle ownership: worldwide: 1960-2015.Transportation Research Part A,33,101-138.
16. Dargay, J.M.(2001).The Effect of Income on Car Ownership Evidence of Asymmetry.Transportation Research Part: A,35,807-821.
17. De Jong, G. C.(1996).A disaggregate model system of vehicle holding duration, type choice and use.Transportation Research,30,263-276.
18. Dyckman, T. R.(1966).An aggregate-demand model for automobiles.Journal of business,38,252-165.
19. Fowkes, A. S.,Button, K. J.(1997).An Evaluation of Car Ownership Forecasting Techniques.International Journal of Transport Economics,4,115-143.
20. Golob, T. F.,Bunch, D. S.,Brownstone, D.(1997).A Vehicle Forecasting Model Based on Revealed and Stated Vehicle Type Choice and Utilisation Data.Journal of Transport Economics,31,69-92.
21. Granger, C. W. J.,Newbold, P.(1974).Spurious Regressions in Econometrics.Journal of Econometrica,2,111-120.
22. Greene, D. L.,Hu, P. S.(1984).The Influence of the Price of Gasoline on Vehicle Use in Multi-vehicle Household.Transportation Research Record,988,19-24.
23. Greene, W. H.(2003).Econometric Analysis.Prentice Hall.
24. Jansson, J. O.(1989).Car Demand Modeling and Forecasting: A New Approach.Journal of Transport Economics and Policy,125-139.
25. Johnson, T. R.(1978).Aggregation and the demand for new and used automobiles.Review of Economic Studies,45,311-327.
26. Levisohn, J.,Robert E. Baldwin (Eds.)(1988).Trade Policy Issue and Empirical Analysis.
27. Lewis, E. B.,Burger, M. M. (Edited),R. Weber,Alan R. Liss(1982).Control of body segment differentiation in Drosophila by the bithorax gene complex, Embryonic Development, Part A: Genetics Aspects.New York:
28. Litman, T.(2000).The Costs of Automobile Dependency and Benefits of Transport Diversity.VTPI.
29. Mannering, F.(1983).An Econometric Analysis of Vehicle Use in Multi-vehicle Household.Transportation Research,17(3),183-189.
30. Mannering, F.,Barfield, W.,Dingus, T. (Eds.)(1998).Human Factors in Intelligent Transportation systems.Mahwah, NJ:Lawrence Erlbaum.
31. Newman, P.,Kenworthy, J.(1999).Sustainability and cities- overcoming automobile dependency.Washington, DC.:Island Press.
32. Schmidt P.(1976).Econometrics.New York:Marcel Delkker.
33. Tanner, C. F.(1978).Long Term Forecasting of Vehicle Ownership and Road Traffic.Journal of the Royal Statistical Society,141,14-63.
34. Train, K.(1986).Qualitative Choice Analysis: Theory, Econometrics and an Application to Automobile Demand.Cambridge:M.I.T. Press.
35. Trandel, G. A.(1991).The bias due to omitting quality when estimating automobile demand.The Review of Economics and Statistics,73(3),522-525.
36. Vasconcellos, E.A.(1997).The demand for cars in developing countries.Transportation Research part A,31(1),245-258.
37. 何俊毅(1995)。碩士論文(碩士論文)。東海大學企業管理研究所。
38. 李治綱、蕭銘雄、嵇允嬋(1992)。機動車輛持有之時間序列模式。運輸計劃季刊，21(1)，1-22。
39. 姜渝生、廖仁哲(1998)。家戶同一效用最大化之小汽車持有與使用、工作運具混合需求模型之研究臺灣地區之實證研究。運輸計劃季刊，27(4)，543-582。
40. 張新立(2003)。環境變遷下家戶持有汽機車決策歷程之研究。行政院國家科學委員會。
41. 陳慧瀅(1994)。碩士論文(碩士論文)。國立中央大學產業經濟研究所。
42. 葉國宏(1996)。碩士論文(碩士論文)。國立交通大學交通運輸工程研究所。
43. 歐嘉瑞(1994)。國產輕型及小型商用車季市場供需特性之研究－政策及動態模擬之應用。中國統計學報，32(1)，61-85。
44. 歐嘉瑞(1995)。博士論文(博士論文)。國立交通大學交通運輸工程研究所。
45. 蔡佳佳(2005)。碩士論文(碩士論文)。臺灣大學土木工程學研究所。
46. 賴文泰(1999)。博士論文(博士論文)。國立成功大學交通管理科學研究所。