以模糊理論觀念分析BOT計畫自償率

Applying Fuzzy Set Theory to Analyze Self-Liquidation Ratio of BOT Projects

10.6402/TPJ.200412.0731

康照宗(Chao-Chung Kang)；馮正民(Cheng-Min Feng)；羅文聖(Wen-Shen Lo)

自償率 ； 模糊自償率 ； 模糊理論 ； BOT計畫 ； SLR ； Fuzzy SLR ； Fuzzy theory ； BOT

運輸計劃季刊

33卷4期（2004 / 12 / 30）

731 - 756

繁體中文

自償率指標一直是BOT計畫之重要財務分析指標。然而，由於BOT計畫具有特許期時間長之特性，故在某些財務變數之假設條件下所計算之自償率並無法充分反映實際財務變動環境。因此，目前政府以自償率作為推動BOT計畫評估之用，有其缺失。基此，本研究應用模糊理論，修正此自償率之缺失。本研究區分自償率為法定自償率、修正自償率、模糊法定自償率與模糊修正自償率四種。文中以臺北港BOT計畫為例，進行上述指標之實例分析。研究結果顯示，政府所訂定之法定自償率其值為1.160，但以模糊理論所得之模糊法定自償率為(0.411，1.160，1.509)。另外，本文所構建之修正自償率為0.746，而模糊修正自償率為(0.358，0.746，1.175)，此時自償率不再是單一值，而是具備合理區間範圍。而無論模糊法定自償率或模糊修正自償率，其可提供政府或民間思考投資BOT計畫之財務流量變動之衛擊程度。

The financial index of SLR (self-liquidation ratio) is important for evaluating BOT projects. However the long concession period characteristic of BOT projects has made SLR unreliable. The purpose of this study is to improve the drawback of SLR through using fuzzy sets theory. Four types of SLR indexes were defined in this study: SLR in law, SLR in general, fuzzy SLR in law, and fuzzy SLR in general. Outcomes of a case study of this study showed that the SLR in law was 1.160 which was the same as that obtained by government, while the SLR in general was 0.746, the fuzzy SLR in law was (0.411, 1.160, 1.509), and fuzzy SLR in general was (0.352, 0.746, 1.175). These ranges of SLR could be used to understand the financial variation of Taipei Port BOT projects.

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