油價、通膨預期與貨幣政策：台灣個案研究

Oil price shocks, Inflation Expectations and Monetary Policy: Evidence from Taiwan

10.6277/TER.202203_50(1).0003

徐婉容(Wan-Jung Hsu)

通膨預期 ； 油價 ； 通膨 ； 貨幣政策 ； inflation expectations ； oil price shocks ； inflation ； monetary policy

經濟論文叢刊

50卷1期（2022 / 03 / 01）

87 - 133

繁體中文

以向量自我迴歸模型（VAR），並使用Consensus Forecasts對台灣通膨預期的調查資料做分析，本文發現長期通膨預期自2000年代初期開始，對短暫的總體經濟干擾（例如：國際油價衝擊）變得較不敏感。進一步探討國際油價衝擊的傳遞管道發現，自2000年代初期後，被較穩固定錨的長期通膨預期，於油價衝擊傳遞機制中的影響力已大幅減弱。探究其原因，長期的低通膨環境與貨幣政策的改善，包含對總體經濟情勢較系統性的反應，以及自1990年代開始持續加強的政策溝通與透明化，為可能的解釋因素。

Based on a vector autoregressive (VAR) model with data from Consensus Forecasts, this study investigates inflation expectations in Taiwan and finds that since the beginning of the 2000s, long-term inflation expectations have been less sensitive to temporary macroeconomic shocks, such as oil price shocks. Further analyzing the transmission channels of oil price shocks, the better anchored long-term inflation expectations have seemed to play a minor role in propagating oil price shocks. What may contribute to this result are the low inflation environment and improvements in monetary policy frameworks. These include the more systematic responses to macroeconomic shocks as well as increased transparency and strengthened communication of monetary policy since the 1990s.

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