世代規模、教育制度變革與教育機會競爭激烈性

Cohort Size, Educational Reform and Competition for Educational Opportunity in Taiwan

10.6191/JPS.2014.49.01

黃美玲(Mei-Ling Huang)；謝雨生(Yeu-Sheng Hsieh)

世代規模 ； 教育制度變革 ； 教育進階 ； 教育機會競爭激烈性 ； cohort size ； educational reform ； educational progression process ； the competition of educational opportunity

人口學刊

49期（2014 / 12 / 01）

1 - 40

繁體中文

臺灣的教育機會競爭激烈性與教育世代的出生規模有關嗎？其關係是否與教育制度變革有所關聯呢？為了回答這兩個研究問題，本研究探討臺灣1940-1992年間，同一年出生者（即同一個出生世代）在教育歷程中的教育機會競爭激烈性之變化，並分析出生世代規模對其不同教育進階的教育機會競爭激烈性之影響。同時，探究出生世代規模對其教育機會競爭激烈性的影響，如何因不同的教育制度變革而變化。分析資料為1940-1992年共53個單年出生世代的世代規模，以及其三個教育進階（國初中進階、高中進階和大專進階）的教育機會競爭激烈性和世代所經歷的教育制度變革等變項。以多層次成長曲線模型分析每個出生世代在不同教育進階的教育機會競爭激烈性。分析結果顯示：同時考慮世代規模與教育制度變革對教育機會競爭激烈性的影響時，世代規模對於國（初）中進階教育競爭激烈性為負向的影響，對於高中進階教育競爭激烈性沒有影響，然而，世代規模愈大，則其大專進階教育競爭激烈性愈高。另外，出生世代規模對其各教育進階教育機會競爭激烈性的影響效應，的確因出生世代所經歷的教育制度變革而有所不同。換言之，臺灣教育制度變革的確調節了出生世代規模，對於教育機會競爭激烈性的影響效應。

This paper explores the trend of educational opportunity competition at different educational levels over different birth cohorts, examines the effect of cohort size on the competition for educational opportunity at different educational level, and tests whether the effect of cohort size on competition for educational opportunity differs by educational reform stages. With data from Education Statistics of the Republic of China, 1958-2010, a multilevel growth curve analysis is employed to analyze the relationships between birth cohort size and competition for educational opportunity at different educational levels, and to assess whether its relationship changes across educational reform stages. The results reveal that birth cohort size has a negative effect on the competition for educational opportunity at the junior high school level, no significant effect at the senior high school level, and a positive effect at the college level when holding the effect of educational reform constant. Moreover, the effect of birth cohort size on the competition for educational opportunity differs by the stage for educational reform. In other words, educational reform does moderate the magnitude of the effect of cohort size on the competition for educational opportunity.

1. 教育部統計處（2011）歷年校數、教師、職員、班級、學生及畢業生數。https://stats.moe.gov.tw/files/main_statistics/seriesdata.xls（取用日期：2011年10月3日）。
2. Ahlburg, D.,Crimmins, E. M.,Easterlin, R. A.(1981).The Outlook for Higher Education: A Cohort Size Model of Enrollment of the College Age Population, 1948-2000.Review of Public Data Use,9(3),211-227.
3. Belfield, C. R.,Levin, H. M.(2002).The Effects of Competition Between Schools on Educational Outcomes: A Review for the United States.Review of Educational Research,72(2),279-341.
4. Bound, J.,Hershbein, B.,Long, B. T.(2009).Playing the Admissions Game: Student Reactions to Increasing College Competition.Journal of Economic Perspectives,23(4),119-146.
5. Bound, J.,Turner, S.(2007).Cohort Crowding: How Resources Affect Collegiate Attainment.Journal of Public Economics,91(5-6),877-899.
6. Bradley, S.,Johnes, G.,Millington, J.(2001).The Effect of Competition on the Efficiency of Secondary Schools in England.European Journal of Operational Research,135(3),545-568.
7. Easterlin, R. A.(1987).Birth and Fortune: The Impact of Numbers on Personal Welfare.Chicago, IL:University of Chicago Press.
8. Freeman, R. B.(1979).The Effect of Demographic Factors on Age-Earnings Profiles.Journal of Human Resources,14(3),289-318.
9. Jonson, D. G.(ed.),Lee, R. D.(ed.)(1987).Population Growth and Economic Development: Issues and Evidence.Madison, WI:University of Wisconsin Press.
10. Lam, D.,Marteleto, L.(2008).Stages of the Demographic Transition from a Child's Perspective: Family Size, Cohort Size, and Children's Resources.Population and Development Review,34(2),225-252.
11. Mare, R. D.(1980).Social Background and School Continuation Decisions.Journal of the American Statistical Association,75(370),295-305.
12. Pampel, F. C.,Peters, H. E.(1995).The Easterlin Effect.Annual Review of Sociology,21,163-194.
13. Premfors, R.(1980).How Much Higher Education Is Enough? A Comparison of Public Policy in France, Sweden, and the United Kingdom.Comparative Education Review,24(3),302-322.
14. Revelle, R.(ed.)(1971).Rapid Population Growth: Consequences and Policy Implications.Baltimore, MD:The Johns Hopkins University Press.
15. Ryder, N. B.(1965).The Cohort as a Concept in the Study of Social Change.American Sociological Review,30(6),843-861.
16. Saavedra, J. E.(2012).Resource Constraints and Educational Attainment in Developing Countries: Colombia 1945-2005.Journal of Development Economics,99(1),80-91.
17. Stapleton, D. C.,Young, D. J.(1988).Educational Attainment and Cohort Size.Journal of Labor Economics,6(3),330-361.
18. Trow, M.(1974).Problems in the Transition from Elite to Mass Higher Education.Conference on Future Structures of Post-Secondary Education,Paris:
19. Welch, F.(1979).Effects of Cohort Size on Earnings: The Baby Boom Babies' Financial Bust.The Journal of Political Economy,87(5),S65-S97.
20. 洪仁進、簡成熙、徐振邦、朱盈潔(1999)。臺灣升學機制及升學競爭之簡介。教育研究資訊，7(6)，1-20。
21. 教育部教育年鑑編纂委員會(1987)。第五次中華民國教育年鑑。臺北:正中。
22. 黃武雄(1995)。臺灣教育的重建：面對當前教育的結構性問題。臺北:遠流。
23. 黃俊傑編(2005)。二十一世紀大學教育的新挑戰。臺北:臺灣大學出版中心。
24. 黃春木(2008)。博士論文(博士論文)。國立臺灣師範大學教育學研究所。
25. 臺灣省政府教育廳(1987)。臺灣教育發展史料彙編：國民教育篇。臺中:臺灣省立臺中圖書館。
26. 臺灣研究基金會編(1994)。臺灣的教育改革。臺北:前衛。
27. 蔡侑達(2011)。碩士論文(碩士論文)。國立臺灣大學經濟學研究所。
28. 謝雨生、黃美玲(2012)。家庭社會階級對子女教育進階的影響及變遷。臺灣的社會變遷1985~2005：社會階層與勞動市場，臺北:
29. 簡成熙(1999)。我國升學競爭的機制與變革：以近年來高中入學制度為例。教育研究資訊，7(6)，61-84。