外銷訂單與台灣總體經濟因素的關係

The Relationship between Export Orders and Macroeconomic Factors

10.29963/TOJEB.200906.0001

林玉彬(Yu-Pin Lin)；杜慧蘭(Hui-Lan Tu)

外銷訂單 ； 因果檢定 ； 衝擊反應函數 ； 向量自我歸模型 ； Export Orders ； Granger Causality ； Impulse Response Function ； Vector Autoregressive Model

真理財經學報

20期（2009 / 06 / 01）

1 - 26

繁體中文

台灣是依賴對外貿易的海島型國家，政府與研究學者常以外銷訂單作爲出口的先行指標。本研究欲了解外銷訂單與台灣總體經濟因素之間有何種關係，因此採用2000年1月至2008年5月的月資料做爲樣本，探討外銷訂單和構成總體經濟活動的指標，包含匯率、重貼現率、失業率、出口物價指數、台灣股票加權指數、北美半導體接單出貨比和核准對外投資等七個變數間的關係。 實證結果發現外銷訂單對台灣加權股價指數、匯率、失業率、出口物價指數、核准對外投資具有領先因果的關係。而失業率、出口物價指數、台灣加權股價指數，對台灣的外銷訂單變化形成持續性的正向影響：匯率、重貼現率、北美半導體接單出貨比呈現緩和漸進的負向軌跡。在預測誤差變異數分解方面，失業率、台灣加權股價指數、核准對外投資三者，對外銷訂單的變動量解釋力較強。

Taiwan is an island country whose economic development depends largely on intemational trade. Export orders are frequently seen as indicators of national export by Government institutes and researchers. This study attempts to take export order as one of the variables to investigate those factors affecting Taiwan's macroeconomics. Collected data as sample in this study, dating from 2000 Jan. to 2008 May, includes exchange rate, discount rate, unemployment rate, export price index, Taiwan weighed stock index, North American semiconductor book-to-bill ratio、foreign direct investment. This paper intends to discuss the correlation and influence between these seven variables: besides、their major impact on Taiwan's export will also be analyzed. The results revealed that export orders Granger-cause Taiwan weighed index, exchange rate. unemployment rate、export price index and foreign direct investment. Unemployment rate, export price index and Taiwan weighted stock index form a continuous positive impact on changes of export order. While exchange rate, discount rate and North American semiconductor book-to-bill ratio showed gradual negative track. The analysis showed that Taiwan weighting stock price index. unemployment rate and foreign investment are among three influential variables influencing the changes of Taiwan export order.

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