股利訊號與未來盈餘之關聯性研究

The Relationship between Dividend Signal and Future Earnings

10.6295/TAMJ.2003.0302.03

林宜勉(Yi-Mien Lin)；游淑禎(Shwu-Jen You)

股利訊號假說 ； 異常未來盈餘 ； 成長調整模式 ； 成長機會 ； 規模效果 ； Dividend signaling hypothesis ； Abnormal future earnings ； Size effect ； Growth adjustment model ； Growth opportunity

台灣管理學刊

3卷2期（2003 / 08 / 01）

41 - 63

繁體中文

股利訊號假說指出，由於公司管理當局與外界投資者之間存在資訊不對稱，故管理當局可藉由股利宣告作為公司未來盈餘的事前訊號。換言之，股利訊號假說預期，管理者利用股利增加與外界投資者溝通其個人觀點－公司未來盈餘前景為有利的。本研究即以此理論為基礎，驗證股利變動宣告是否反映公司未來前景；研究樣本係採用會計盈餘連續三年或以上呈上升而後下降的公司，並設定盈餘下降之第一年為當期，以探討當期股利的增加是否引起後續二年之會計盈餘產生有利震動。同時，本文將未來盈餘的震動視為非預期未來盈餘或異常未來盈餘，並採用隨機漫步模式;成長調整模式與Martingale模式來衡量。 實證結果顯示：(1)股利增加宣告與異常未來盈餘無關，即當期股利決策並不能傳達有關公司未來盈餘的資訊。(2)當期股利增加的公司，前期盈餘之增加意味著異常未來盈餘將增加，亦即公司每年所提供之盈餘訊息為其未來盈餘的有用訊息。(3)當探討股利宣告與盈餘的相互關係時，成長調整模式優於隨機漫步模式與Martingale模式。(4)股利變動率愈大的公司並無較強的盈餘資訊傳遞效果，亦即當期股利變動愈大的訊號無法傳遞公司未來是否有非預期盈餘。(5)股利增加宣告後，公司規模愈大者，由於穩定性高且資訊管道較多，故異常未來盈餘愈小；此表示股利增加宣告與公司異常未來盈餘之間存在規模效應。(6)成長機會愈大的公司，未來發展空間愈大，故異常未來盈餘愈大。

Dividend signaling hypothesis predict that information asymmetry exists between managers and outside investors, so that managers employ dividend increase policies to signal favorable future earnings prospects. Based on this concept, our paper examines whether the announcements of dividend change may convey useful information about a firm's future operation performance. We adopt the sample firms in which annual earnings decline after three or more consecutive years of earnings growth. Also, we use a variety of model specifications (Random walk model, Growth adjustment model, and Martingale model) to investigate whether the favorable dividend policies influence abnormal future earnings. The findings of this study are: (1) The dividend increases are not favorable signals about future earnings. That is, the announcements of dividend increase are unrelated to future earnings performance. (2) About the firms of current dividend increase, past earnings increase implies a positive abnormal future earnings occurs. Hence, annual earnings are useful information for predicting future earnings. (3) The growth adjustment model is better than both random model and martingale model when we examine the causation between dividends and earnings. (4) Percentage change in per-share dividend cannot convey information about future unexpected earnings. (5) After the announcement of dividend increase, the larger size of the firm owns high stability and more information resources, so that it has smaller abnormal future earnings. This indicates that the size effect exists between the announcement of dividend increase and the abnormal future earnings. (6) The growth opportunities of the firms are positively related to the abnormal future earnings.

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