Does Sentiment or Anxiety Drive Consumer Demand?

10.6339/JDS.2014.12(1).1151

Gordon G. Bechtel

Common interval scale ； cross-wave regression ； discretionary spending ； panelist weights ； randomization-based panel regressions ； survey opinion data

Journal of Data Science

12卷1期（2014 / 01 / 01）

19 - 34

英文

The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index has pre- occupied politicians, journalists, and Wall Street for decades (Uchitelle, 2002). This American economic indicator is now co-published with Thomson Reuters in London. The international reach of this index cries out for another look at George Katona's consumer sentiment construct as a predictor of consumer demand. Regressions from the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS) show that consumer sentiment is ineffectual in predicting micro variation in discretionary spending between consumers, within consumers over time, or between and within consumers overall. Moreover, consumer sentiment bears no relationship whatsoever to national consumer demand over annual BHPS surveys from 1997 to 2008. In contrast, an indicator of economic anxiety accounts for all three types of variation in micro demand, as well as variation in macro demand over time.

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