新北市里層級之水災暨坡地災害脆弱性分析：全盤型脆弱性管理架構的初步應用

Comprehensive Vulnerability Management Framework of Village Vulnerability Assessment to Floods and Landslides in New Taipei City: A Preliminary Empirical Study

10.29865/PAP.202012_(71).0003

廖興中(Hsin-Chung Liao)；張鎧如(Kai-Ju Chang)；李天申(Tien-Shen Li)

全盤型脆弱性管理 ； 潛在全象分析法 ； 村里水災與坡地災害脆弱性 ； 資源可近性 ； 新北市 ； comprehensive vulnerability management ； latent profile analysis ； village vulnerability to floods and landslides ； resource accessibility ； New Taipei City

行政暨政策學報

71期（2020 / 12 / 01）

89 - 137

繁體中文

近年來，透過評估社區或地區的災害脆弱性，作為探究地方災害防救政策之依據，已是公共行政學界從事災害防救研究的新興課題。本研究引用McEntire（2005）的「全盤型脆弱性管理」概念與其所提出的脆弱性內涵分析架構，運用潛在全象分析法，探討新北市1,032個里的水災與坡地災害脆弱性，發展相應指標進行災害脆弱性評估，指標中所運用的數據均來自政府機關的官方資料庫、開放資料平臺。本研究將脆弱程度相似的里予以分群，進而針對不同特性的群體，分別提出增強其應變災害能力的相關討論。研究發現，新北市共有27個里對於水災與坡地災害同時具有高度的脆弱性，據此，本研究建議：第一，市政府應建立跨局處的機制，並結合市府、公所、民間、學界的力量，規劃補強策略；第二，市府與公所應全面提升這些里的避難、救難、物資、醫療、長照等各類防救災資源的可近性；第三，建議將這些里列為推動自主防災社區的重點對象，積極強化里民的災害風險意識；第四，針對山區與沿海地區，增強物資、醫療與長照資源；第五，中央與市府、公所須合作以確保防災設施功能正常運作。

Community-based hazard vulnerability assessments have gradually become a critical research topic, which attracts public administration scholars who focus on emergency management and disaster policy. This paper adopts the concept of comprehensive vulnerability management and applies McEntire's (2005) theoretical framework to conduct village-based floods and landslides vulnerability assessment in New Taipei City by using Latent Profile Analysis. Indicators and measures in each dimension are public available records from official datasets or governmental open data platform. Total 1,032 villages in New Taipei City are clustered as different groups based on their characteristics related to vulnerability to floods and landslides. The findings show 27 villages are particularly vulnerable to both hazards. We propose five suggestions to enhance those villages' disaster response capability. Firstly, the city government should organize a cross-functional team to develop response strategies and plans about these vulnerable villages. Secondly, resource accessibility related to sheltering, rescuing, goods and materials, medical services, and long-term care services in these villages should be enhanced. Thirdly, the idea of disaster-resilience community should be promoted and implemented to these village residents to increase their disaster risk awareness. Fourthly, resource availability of goods and materials, medical services, and long-term care services in mountain and coastal areas need to be improved. Fifthly, governments at all levels should cooperate with each other closely to certify all disaster-prevention infrastructures function properly.

1. 吳杰穎,黃昱翔(2011)。颱洪災害脆弱度評估指標之建立：以南投縣水里鄉為例。都市與計劃，38(2)，195-218。
   連結：
2. 李天申,周韻采(2014)。重大災害資訊治理模式之交易成本分析。政治科學論叢，59，91-118。
   連結：
3. 李欣輯,楊惠萱(2012)。坡地災害社會脆弱度指標評估與應用。都市與計劃，39(4)，375-406。
   連結：
4. 李堅明,陳建智(2010)。台灣脆弱性指標建構與評估之研究。都市與計劃，37(1)，71-96。
   連結：
5. 林文苑,洪啟東(2017)。台灣本島網格化災害脆弱度空間分佈評估與 OWA 分析應用。地理學報，87，39-78。
   連結：
6. 林宗弘,蕭新煌,許耿銘(2018)。邁向世界風險社會？台灣民眾的社會資本、風險感知與風險因應行為。調查研究—方法與應用，40，127-166。
   連結：
7. 林冠慧,林宗弘,胡伯維,張宜君,葉錦勳,詹忠翰,劉季宇(2017)。地震、屋毀與傷亡：集集地震風險的因果分析。都市與計劃，44(1)，83-112。
   連結：
8. 林冠慧,張長義(2015)。脆弱性研究的演變與當前發展。地理學報，77，49-82。
   連結：
9. 張學聖,劉佩佳(2015)。考量空間關聯之地區洪災脆弱性研究以雲林縣易淹水地區為例。地理學報，79，1-29。
   連結：
10. 張鎧如(2018)。初探我國地方政府從事災害防救組織協力之動機：理論與實務的比較。公共行政學報，54，79-125。
    連結：
11. 許耿銘(2017)。都市水患風險脆弱性之初探：臺南市空間與非空間因素的分析。政治科學論叢，74，149-191。
    連結：
12. 楊永年(2009)。八八水災救災體系之研究。公共行政學報，32，143-169。
    連結：
13. 蕭新煌,許耿銘(2015)。探析都市氣候風險的社會指標：回顧與芻議。都市與計劃，42(1)，59-86。
    連結：
14. Adger, W. N.(2006).Vulnerability.Global Environmental Change,16(3),268-281.
15. Adger, W. N.,Nick, B.,Bentham, G.(2004).New Indicators of Vulnerability and Adaptive Capacity.Oxford:Tyndall Centre Press.
16. Amrhein, C. G.(1995).Searching for the Elusive Aggregation Effect: Evidence from Statistical Simulations.Environment and planning A,27(1),105-119.
17. Birkmann, J.(2011).First-and Second-order Adaptation to Natural Hazards and Extreme Events in the Context of Climate Change.Natural Hazards,58(2),811-840.
18. Brooks, N.,Adger, W. N.,Kelly, P. M.(2005).The Determinants of Vulnerability and Adaptive Capacity at the National Level and the Implications for Adaptation.Global Environmental Change,15(2),151-163.
19. Cutter, S. L.(2003).GI science, Disasters, and Emergency Management.Transactions in GIS,7(4),439-446.
20. Cutter, S. L.(1996).Vulnerability to Environmental Hazards.Progress in Human Geography,20(4),529-539.
21. Cutter, S. L.,Barnes, L.,Berry, M.,Burton, C.,Evans, E.,Tate, E.,Webb, J.(2008).A Place-based Model for Understanding Community Resilience to Natural Disasters.Global Environmental Change,18(4),598-606.
22. Eakin, H.,Bojorquez-Tapia, L. A.(2008).Insights into the Composition of Household Vulnerability from Multicriteria Decision Analysis.Global Environmental Change,18(1),112-127.
23. Eakin, H.,Luers, A. L.(2006).Assessing the Vulnerability of Social-environmental Systems.Annual Review of Environment and Resources,31,365-394.
24. Füssel, H. M.(2007).Vulnerability: A Generally Applicable Conceptual Framework for Climate Change Research.Global environmental change,17(2),155-167.
25. Gallopín, G. C.(2006).Linkages Between Vulnerability, Resilience, and Adaptive Capacity.Global Environmental Change,16(3),293-303.
26. Helmer, M.,Hilhorst, D.(2006).Natural Disasters and Climate Change.Disasters,30(1),1-4.
27. Hinkel, J.(2011).Indicators of Vulnerability and Adaptive Capacity: Towards a Clarification of the Science–policy Interface.Global Environmental Change,21(1),198-208.
28. Kasperson, R. E.(Ed.),Pidgeon, N. F.(Ed.),Slovic, P.(Ed.)(2003).The Social Amplification of Risk.Cambridge:Cambridge University Press.
29. Kates, R. W.,Clark, W. C.,Corell, R.,Hall, J. M.,Jaeger, C. C.,Lowe, I.,McCarthy, J. J.,Schellnhuber, H. J.,Bolin, B.,Dickson, N. M.,Faucheux, S.,Gallopin, G. C.,Grübler, A.,Huntley, B.,Jäger, J.,Jodha, N. S.,Kasperson, R. E.,Mabogunje, A.,Matson, P.,Mooney, H.,Moore, B., III,O’Riordan, T.,Svedin, U.(2001).Sustainability Science.Science,292(5517),641-642.
30. Kelly, P. M.,Adger, W. N.(2000).Theory and Practice in Assessing Vulnerability to Climate Change and Facilitating Adaptation.Climatic Change,47(4),325-352.
31. Longley, P. A.(ed.),Goodchild, M. F.(ed.),Maguire, D. J.(ed.),Rhind, D.W.(ed.)(1999).Geographical Information Systems: Principles, Techniques, Applications, and Management.New York:John Wiley and Sons.
32. Luers, A. L.,Lobell, D. B.,Sklar, L. S.,Addams, C. L.,Matson, P. A.(2003).A Method for Quantifying Vulnerability, Applied to the Agricultural System of the Yaqui Valley, Mexico.Global Environmental Change,13(4),255-267.
33. Luo, W.,Wang, F.(2003).Measures of Spatial Accessibility to Health Care in a GIS Environment: Synthesis and a Case study in the Chicago Region.Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design,30(6),865-884.
34. McEntire, D. A.(2000).Sustainability or Invulnerable Development? Proposals for the Current Shift in Paradigms.Australian Journal of Emergency Management,15(1),58-61.
35. McEntire, D. A.(2015).Disaster Response and Recovery: Strategies and Tactics for Resilience.New Jersey:John Wiley and Sons Press.
36. McEntire, D. A.(2005).Why Vulnerability Matters: Exploring the Merit of an Inclusive Disaster Reduction Concept.Disaster Prevention and Management: An International Journal,14(2),206-222.
37. McEntire, D. A.,Fuller, C.,Johnston, C. W.,Weber, R.(2002).A Comparison of Disaster Paradigms: The Search for a Holistic Policy Guide.Public Administration Review,62(3),267-281.
38. Mileti, D.(1999).Disasters by Design: A Reassessment of Nature Hazards in the United States.Washington, D.C.:Joseph Henry Press.
39. Morrow, B. H.(1999).Identifying and Mapping Community Vulnerability.Disasters,23(1),1-18.
40. O’Brien, K.,Leichenko, R.,Kelkar, U.,Venema, H.,Aandahl, G.,Tompkins, H.,Javed, A.,Bhadwal, S.,Barg, S.,West, J.(2004).Mapping Vulnerability to Multiple Stressors: Climate Change and Globalization in India.Global Environmental Change,14(4),303-313.
41. Paleo, U. Fra.(ed.)(2015).Risk Governance: The Articulation of Hazard, Politics, and Ecology.Dordrecht:Springer.
42. Parry, M.(Ed.),Parry, M. L.(Ed.),Canziani, O.(Ed.),Palutikof, J.(Ed.),Van der Linden, P.(Ed.),Hanson, C.(Ed.)(2007).Climate Change 2007-impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability: Working Group II Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC.NY:Cambridge University Press.
43. Pirasteh, S.(ed.),Li, J.(ed.)(2017).Global Changes and Natural Disaster Management: Geo-information Technologies.New York:Springer.
44. Schipper, L.,Pelling, M.(2006).Disaster Risk, Climate Change and International Development: Scope for, and Challenges to, Integration.Disasters,30(1),19-38.
45. Schröter, D.,Polsky, C.,Patt, A. G.(2005).Assessing Vulnerabilities to the Effects of Global Change: An Eight Step Approach.Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change,10(4),573-595.
46. Turner II, B. L.,Kasperson, R. E.,Matson, P. A.,McCarthy, J. J.,Corell, R. W.,Christensen, L.,Eckley, N.,Kasperson, J. X.,Luerse, A.,Martello, M. L.,Polsky, C.,Pulsipher, A.,Schiller, A.(2003).A Framework for Vulnerability Analysis in Sustainability Science.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,100(14),8074-8079.
47. Van Aalst, M. K.(2006).The Impacts of Climate Change on the Risk of Natural Disasters.Disasters,30(1),5-18.
48. Vermunt, J. K.,Magidson, J.(2002).Latent Class Cluster Analysis.Applied Latent Class Analysis,11,89-106.
49. Wisner, B.,Luce, H. R.(1993).Disaster Vulnerability: Scale, Power and Daily Life.GeoJournal,30(2),127-140.
50. Zakour, M. J.,Gillespie, D. F.(2013).Community Disaster Vulnerability：Theory, Research, and Practice.New York:Springer.
51. 王价巨（編）(2017).災害管理：13 堂專業的必修課程.臺北市:五南.
52. 王俊元(2019).協力災害治理：韌性系統建構與網絡管理策略.臺北市:五南出版.
53. 吳杰穎,江宜錦(2008)。台灣天然災害統計指標體系建構與分析。地理學報，51，65-84。
54. 吳杰穎,邵珮君,林文苑,柯于璋,洪鴻智,陳天健,陳亮全,黃智彥,詹士樑,薩支平(2007).災害管理學辭典.臺北市:五南.
55. 李宗勳(2005)。從全球化觀點看政府公共安全治理模式。法政學報，18，1-48。
56. 李宗勳(2011)。以社會經濟脆弱性因子分析建構社區災害的回復力。中央警察大學學報，48，21-56。
57. 張四明(2014)。地方政府發展災變服務協力網絡的挑戰與展望：莫拉克風災個案探討。地方治理之趨勢與挑戰：台灣經驗，臺北市:
58. 張四明,王瑞夆(2013)。台灣重大災害災情查通報系統運作之經驗分析。復旦公共行政評論，10，147-168。
59. 郭彥廉,蕭代基(2009)。天然災害脆弱性與社經脆弱性因子介紹。國研科技，22，99-101。
60. 陳怡臻,李欣輯,蘇文瑞,蔡元芳(2011)。利用層級分析法建置屏東沿海地區之水災脆弱性地圖。臺灣水利，59(4)，30-46。
61. 陸宛蘋,廖興中,張鎧如,李天申(2017)。衛生福利部委託研究計畫衛生福利部委託研究計畫,未出版
62. 潘穆嫈,林貝珊,林元祥(2016)。韌性研究之回顧與展望。防災科學，1，53-78。
63. 蘇文瑞,徐百輝,吳上煜,黃俊宏,葉家承,周恆毅,周學政(2010)。空間資訊科技於災害防救之應用─以颱風災害應變為例。前瞻科技與管理，特刊，29-46。