盈餘預測品質與核閱會計師事務所品牌、預測性質及盈餘管理行為關聯性之研究

The Association between Quality of Earnings Forecasts and Brand Name of the Reviewing CPA Firms, Characteristics of Forecasts and Earnings Management

10.6736/JPSR.200512_2(2).0003

曾玉琦(Yee-Chy Tseng)；沈文華(Wen-Hua Shen)；陳建嘉(Chein-Chia Chen)

盈餘預測 ； 會計師事務所品牌 ； 裁決性應計項目 ； 自願性財務預測 ； 強制性財務預測 ； Earnings forecasts ； Brand name of CPA firms ； Discretionary accruals ； Voluntary financial forecasts ； Mandatory financial forecasts

績效與策略研究

2卷2期（2005 / 12 / 01）

57 - 84

繁體中文

本研究探討會計師事務所品牌(五大/非五大)、盈餘預測性質、及管理當局盈餘管理行為與上市上櫃公司盈餘預測品質的關聯性。主要研究發現有三：(1)由五大核閱之盈餘預測，其預測誤差率、正向偏誤傾向、正向偏誤幅度、及平均負向更新程度，與由非五大核閱者均無顯著的差異。(2)強制性財務預測有助於降低原始財務預測的誤差率，並且有助於抑制預測過於樂觀的幅度。(3)管理當局的盈餘管理行為與盈餘預測誤差率、正向偏誤傾向、正向偏誤幅度、及平均負向更新程度均呈負向關係。經由實證分析，本研究認為會計事務所品牌並不是影響盈餘預測準確性的因素，所以審計品質也並不等同於核閱品質；強制性盈餘預測因擁有較低誤差，對投資人相對有保障，所以應該要繼續維持；而公司利用盈餘管理行為影響盈餘預測誤差的現象則是普遍存在的。

The purpose of the study is to investigate how quality of earnings forecasts relates to brand name of the reviewing CPA firms, characteristics of forecasts and earnings management. There are three main findings: (1) There is no significant difference between earnings forecasts reviewed by Big five and No-big five in terms of forecast error rates, tendency of positive bias, extent of positive bias, and extent of negative revision. (2) Mandatory earnings forecasts are instrumental to the reduction of forecast error rates and to the inhibition of the extent of over-optimistic forecasts. (3) Earnings management, proxied by discretionary accruals, is negatively and significantly related to forecast error rates, tendency of positive bias, extent of positive bias, and extent of negative revision. The results suggest that brand name of the reviewing CPA firms is not a determining factor in the accuracy of earnings forecasts and audit quality is not necessarily the same as reviewing quality. Mandatory earnings forecasts should be continued due to its lower error rates and it is rather prevalent that companies manage earnings to influence the error rates of earnings forecasts.

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