企業財務危機預測－整合財務指標、公司治理因素及智慧資本構面模型

The Prediction of Financial Distress-Integrated Model of Financial Ratios, Corporate Governance Factors and Intellectual Capital Dimensions

10.6736/JPSR.200906_6(2).0004

林豐騰(Feng-Teng Lin)

羅吉斯迴歸 ； 破產預測 ； 公司治理 ； 智慧資本 ； Logistic regression ； prediction of distress ； corporate finance ； intellectual capital

績效與策略研究

6卷2期（2009 / 06 / 01）

59 - 72

繁體中文

本研究採用羅吉斯迴歸(Logistic Regression)，以台灣上市公司為樣本，建構出整合財務指標、公司治理因素及智慧資本構面之財務危機預警模型。研究將危機公司（下市和全額交割公司）與健全公司配對，分別建立財務變數模型利用十項財務變數來作為危機預警之預測模型，以及將財務變數模型納入四項公司治理指標變數與財務變數組成公司治理模型，和以公司治理模型納入及三項智慧資本變數共十七個變數建構成一個整合破產預測模型。實證結果顯示，整合之破產預測模型在預測能力上優於只有財務指標之模型或是公司治理變數模型，研究建議在預測企業財務危機時將智慧資本指標也納入破產預測模型之觀察變數中，相信對危機預警會有很大的貢獻。

This paper uses the logistic regression to conduct a financial distress prediction model with Taiwan Publicly Traded Firms as samples. Financial crisis companies like full-cash delivery stock or delisted firms and healthy companies are matched to compare their performance. There are 10 financial indicators in the financial model; corporate governance model has 10 financial indicators with 4 corporate governance indicators; and 3 intellectual capital indicators are included to corporate governance model and form the integrated financial distress prediction model. The result reveals that the integrated distress prediction model predicts better than a financial model and a corporate governance model which solely consist financial or corporate governance indicators. Furthermore, this study suggests that the intellectual indicators should be viewed as a critical indicator and contained in the distress prediction model to reach better prediction results.

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