Variation and Attribution Analysis of Runoff Extreme Value in Jingou River Basin

金溝河流域徑流極值變異及歸因分析

10.6937/TWC.202103/PP_69(1).0006

李藝珍(LI YIZHEN)；嶽春芳(YUE CHUNFANG)；覃姍(QIN SHAN)

Moving cut data-approximate entropy ； Runoff extreme value variation ； Rainfall-runoff relation ； Contribution rate ； 滑動移除近似熵 ； 徑流極值變異 ； 降雨徑流關係 ； 貢獻率

台灣水利

69卷1期（2021 / 03 / 01）

81 - 93

英文

Under the changing environment, the stationary of hydrological extreme sequence is destroyed, and extreme hydrological events occur frequently. In order to analyze the variation of the extreme runoff sequence and its influencing factors in the Jingou River Basin under the changing environment, the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test method, moving cut data-approximate entropy (MC-ApEn), and rainfall-runoff relationship method were used to carry out the analysis and research based on the extreme runoff and precipitation sequence in the Jingou River Basin from 1964 to 2016. The results show that (1) the minimum sequence of runoff in the Jingou River Basin has a significant decreasing trend, while the maximum sequence has a non-significant increasing trend. The maximum runoff sequence and precipitation sequence have a significant mutation in 2000. (2) The variation of runoff maximum sequence is mainly influenced by climate change and human activities. The contribution rate of climate change to runoff maximum variation is 23.25%, and that of human activities is 76.75%. Therefore, the impact of human activities on runoff maximum variation is higher than that of climate change on runoff maximum variation. (3) Compared with the Mann-Kendall abrupt change test, moving cut data-approximate entropy (MC-ApEn) is more effective in detecting the mutation of the extreme value sequence of non-linear runoff under the changing environment and can be used as a mutation test method for highly complex and non-linear time sequences.

變化環境下水文極值序列的一致性受到破壞，極端水文事件頻發。為分析變化環境下金溝河流域徑流極值序列發生變異情況及其影響因素，本文基於金溝河流域1964－2016年的徑流和降水極值序列，採用Mann-Kendall非參數檢驗方法、滑動移除近似熵法和降雨徑流關係法開展了分析研究。結果表明：1）金溝河流域徑流極小值序列有顯著的減小趨勢，極大值序列存在不顯著的增加趨勢，徑流和降水極大值序列都在2000年發生了顯著突變；2）徑流極大值變異主要受氣候變化和人類活動共同影響，氣候變化對徑流極大值變化的貢獻率為23.25%，人類活動對徑流極大值變化的貢獻率為76.75%，人類活動對徑流極大值變異的影響高於氣候變化對徑流極大值變異的影響；3）滑動移除近似熵能夠更有效地檢驗變化環境下非線性徑流極值序列的突變，可作為高度複雜、非線性時間序列的突變檢驗方法。

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