數位家庭娛樂產業結構與情境分析

The Industry Structure and Scenario Analysis of Digital Home Entertainment Industry

10.6342/NTU.2006.00524

李永信

情境分析 ； 產業結構 ； 數位家庭 ； 娛樂電腦 ； Scenario Analysis ； Industry Structure ； Digital Home Center ； Entertainment PC

國立臺灣大學國際企業學系學位論文

2006年

碩士

李吉仁

繁體中文

數位家庭包含了娛樂、資訊、語音以及保全自動化等四個應用領域，而短期內最可能實現的是數位娛樂領域的應用。在可預見的未來內，數位家庭娛樂應用的提供者將來自三個原本互不相關的產業(個人電腦、消費性電子與提供影音娛樂的服務業者)，預期將會存在激烈的競爭，使數位家庭娛樂產業的未來發展具備高度的不確定性。本研究擬以娛樂電腦(EPC. Entertainment PC)這項娛樂產品為中心，透過五力分析與情境分析法的理論架構，探討全球數位家庭娛樂產業的未來可能發展情境與決策時的關鍵考量因素，期能提供相關業者策略發展之參考。 觀察家庭娛樂產業歷史與分析產業現況，目前EPC面臨1).高度的供應者與消費者的議價壓力，2).中高程度的DVD錄放影機替代威脅，以及數位機上盒之潛在進入威脅，3). 低度的互補資產專有性與業內價格競爭等產業結構屬性。同時在產業分析過程中，本研究發現此產業具備的重要特性為1). 用戶迴路與數位內容為關鍵互補資產，2). 娛樂應用價值整合為高度進入障礙。 從產業分析結果與專家訪談，本研究確立了影響產業發展的關鍵不確定性因素，包括娛樂技術標準發展、Triple Play與家庭殺手級應用的發展、政府媒體法規與其所影響的互補資產(用戶迴路)開放性。這些因素歸類成技術、需求與競合等三個不確定軸面，而依其變化方向可組合出和平相處、兩強相爭、三國鼎立與一方獨大等四個合理情境；在一方獨大情境下，EPC遭受上游議價力與替代、潛在進入威脅均降低，且互補資產專有性與數位娛樂需求均提高，情境發展對其最為有利。針對此情境，本研究以主動影響各不確定軸面對應變化方向之作法，對EPC業者進行策略建議，包括：1). 在技術變遷軸面，選擇高畫質DVD與無線網路技術陣營、積極加入DLNA聯盟以擴大相容產品安裝基礎；2). 在需求變化軸面，提高EPC出貨比例，並搭售網路內容業者的娛樂服務；3). 在競合態勢軸面，主動與電信和Cable業者合作，提高其用戶迴路與數位內容成為EPC互補資產的專有性。

The concept of digital home includes entertainment, information, voice and secutity control. Among these application areas, entertainment has been regarded as the most potential area for commercialization. However, there would be three major camps competing for the market dominance, including players of personal computers (PCs), consumer electronics and service providers, which makes the industry evolution uncertain. The present research will focus on the competitive evolution of entertainment PC (EPC) products and explore critical factors underlying the prospective structure changes. We will apply five-force model and scenario analysis to this research issue. Based on the five-force analysis, we found that theorem, hope to provide a base for firms to formulate strategies. From history and present situation, EPC faces: 1). High level bargaining power from supplier and buyer; 2) .Medium-to-id-high level threat from susbstitute (DVD player) and potential entrant (Set-top-box); 3). Low level complementary asset specificity and rival price -competition. At the same timeIn addition, we also found that: important industry character is also discovered: 1). Last mile and content areis key complementary assets; 2). Value integration of entertainment applicationwould constitute barriers to new entry. is the high entry barrier. Based on scenario analysis, we identified several key scenario variables, including technology evolvement, Triple Play and killer application progress, media policy and last mile openness. These factors were then classified into 3 axises: Technology, Demand and Co-optition, under which four scenarios were established. In “monopoly”scenario, EPC faces lower bargaining power and threat, higher specificity of complementary asset and consumer demand, which represent the best scenario. Accordingly, the research suggests that EPC firms actively influence the future through the following ways 1). They should take sides in HD/ Blu-ray DVD and WLAN standards, proactively join DLNA and increase install base; 2). They should increase the ratio of EPC product and bundle the service of internet content provider; 3). They should actively cooperate in product co-development aspect with service providers like telecom and cable companies, to enhance the dominance of their key asset (last mile and content).

1. 郭曉蓉(2016)。電動機車產業結構與發展策略之情境分析研究。國立臺灣大學國際企業學系學位論文。2016。1-97。