台灣出口訂單與出口關聯性之探討

The Relationships Between Export Oredrs and Exports in Taiwan

10.29629/TEFP.200403.0004

蔡瑞胸(Ruey S. Tsay)；吳中書(Chung-Shu Wu)；陳建福(Chien-Fu Chen)

出口訂單 ； 出口 ； 海外生產 ； 領先指標 ； Export orders ； Exports ； Overseas production ； Leading indicator

臺灣經濟預測與政策

34卷2期（2004 / 03 / 01）

129 - 158

繁體中文

台灣是個對外依存度很高的國家，以民國89年為例，實質商品及勞務輸出佔實質國內生產毛額（GDP）之比率已達54%。為了事前掌握未來出口值的變動趨勢，研究者與政府部門常採出口訂單作為出口的領先指標。此外，近年來出口訂單與出口之差距逐年持續擴大，而同時台灣廠商海外生產的比重亦逐漸普遍，因此經濟學家常將出口與出口訂單差距的擴大歸因於擴增的海外生產。出口訂單是否為出口合適的領先指標呢？且出口與出口訂單間的差距真的是海外生產增加所造成的嗎？本文的實證結果顯示，出口與出口訂單兩者間存在同時性的特性；此外，單由廠商海外生產比並不足以解釋大多數產業出口訂單與出口之差異。

Taiwan is a highly export-oriented country, with total exports of goods and services accounting for about 54 percent of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2000. In order to follow the trends in the movement of exports in advance, export orders have long been used as important leading indicators of actual exports by researchers and government officials alike. However, in recent years the gap between export orders and actual exports has continuously broadened. Since production overseas has become more and more of a widespread practice among Taiwan firms, economists have often accounted for the widening gaps between export orders and exports by pointing out that overseas production has been increasing. Are export orders really valid and reliable leading indicators of exports? Can the gaps between export orders and exports justifiably be attributed to increasing overseas production? The empirical results clearly demonstrate that export orders and exports have a contemporaneous relationship. Besides this, no significant correlations between export orders and discrepancies with actual export and foreign production ratios evidently exist for most indicators.

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