臺灣與東協貿易流量的變遷

楊中全

doi:10.6342/NTU201803937

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台湾与东协贸易流量的变迁

The Evolution of Trading Flows between Taiwan and ASEAN

杨中全 , 硕士　　导师：雷立芬　　

繁体中文 DOI： 10.6342/NTU201803937

东南亚国协；贸易流量；引力模型；新南向政策； ASEAN ； trade flow ； gravity model ； New Southbound Policy

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摘要 │ 参考文献 (33) │ 国际计量

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The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is expected to launch the ASEAN Economic Community by the end of 2018, further integrating the economic relationships among the 10 member countries, and China, India, Japan, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand. The ASEAN will become a globally prominent consumer market and a single production base. Therefore, whether Taiwan has established sufficient economic and trade relations and collaborations with the ASEAN countries warrants in-depth discussion.
 This study uses the gravity model to analyze the trade flow changes between Taiwan and the ASEAN region in 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2015 from the macroeconomics perspective. It also considers the trade relations of South Korea and China with the ASEAN and discusses the differences between Taiwan and these two countries in trade with the ASEAN countries. The results show that Taiwan’s trade relations with the ASEAN are closer than with countries that are not members of ASEAN. Taiwan and the ASEAN have maintained stable trade relationships since 2000; however, between 1995 and 2015, South Korea and China maintained closer trade relations with the ASEAN than Taiwan. After South Korea and China signed free trade agreements (FTAs) with the ASEAN, the gap between Taiwan and the two countries widened in terms of trade with the ASEAN. There are major differences in the trade relations between Taiwan and ASEAN member countries. Countries that have closer ties with Taiwan include Singapore, Thailand, and Malaysia. Indonesia and the Philippines have more distant trade relationships, while Vietnam has developed a deeper trade relationship with Taiwan. Taiwan has normal trade relations with countries such as Brunei, Cambodia, Myanmar, and Laos.
Based on empirical results, this study proposes policy recommendations to attract Singapore, a highly economically developed country, to invest in Taiwan and set up factories. As Malaysia and Thailand are undergoing rapid economic development, Taiwanese corporations should take advantage of their investments there to capture the market in both countries. In less economically developed ASEAN countries, the Taiwanese government should encourage entrepreneurs to invest in industries that are valued locally. Although the ASEAN has been boosting internal integration in recent years, the level of economic development in each member country is different. The government should implement appropriate strategies to respond to the developmental needs of each member country and strengthen trade relations between Taiwan and the ASEAN.

参考文献 ( 33 ) 〈TOP〉

黄登兴、黄幼宜，2006。「两岸三地贸易流量的变迁—引力模型的验证」，《台湾经济预测与政策》。36卷，2期，47-75。
连结：
中华民国总统府，2016。「总统核定《总统府新南向政策办公室设置要点》」报导（https://www.president.gov.tw/NEWS/20507）（上网日期：2016年6月15日）
李笃华、林幸君、许圣民、张静贞、徐世勳，2014。「台湾与东协洽签自由贸易协定之经济影响评估－可计算一般均衡分析的应用」，《国家发展研究》。13卷，2期，39-76。
吴玲君，2005。「中国与东亚区域经贸合作：区域主义与霸权之间的关系」，《问题与研究》。44卷，5期，1-27。
吴荣杰、张静文、颜晃平，2011。「东协加一对东亚国家贸易技术效率之影响评估」，《农业与经济》。46期，103-138。

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DOI可强化引用精确性、增强学术圈连结，并给予使用者跨平台的良好使用经验，目前在全世界已有超过五千万个对象申请DOI。如想对DOI的使用与概念有进一步了解，请参考（）。