臺灣地區日降雨網格化資料庫（1960～2015）之建置與驗證

SHU-PING WENG; CHEN-DAU YANG

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工程学 > 水利工程

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台湾地区日降雨网格化资料库（1960～2015）之建置与验证

The Construction and Verification of Daily Gridded Rainfall Dataset (1960-2015) in Taiwan

翁叔平(SHU-PING WENG) ；杨承道(CHEN-DAU YANG)

台湾水利； 66 卷 4 期 (2018 / 12 / 01) ， P33 - 52

繁体中文;英文

日累积降水；隐藏高斯变数；网格化资料；资料补遗；气候变迁； Daily accumulated rainfall ； Latent Gaussian variable ； Gridded data ； Data imputation ； Climate change

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摘要 │ 参考文献 (64) │ 被引用文献 (2)

摘要〈TOP〉

并列摘要〈TOP〉

This article aimed to report the construction procedure of a newly released long-term (1960-2015) and complete (no missings) daily gridded (1-km high-resolution) rainfall dataset in Taiwan (including her offshore islands), assessing its uncertainty and verifying its sharpness to some chosen influential weather/climate events. By treating the station daily rainfall series, including the zeros, as the latent Gaussian variable, we developed empirical models pertaining to the month-by-month rainfall characteristics in Taiwan and numerically obtained their optimized parameters by which the daily rainfall series can be normalized, and in turn subjected to the incomplete empirical orthogonal function (EOF) decomposition. Utilizing the geoinformation of reference stations and taking the climate signal of target station into account, we proceeded, inside the state-space of EOF, the station data imputation and subsequent griddization via a natural neighbor interpolation scheme. After integrating the individual principal components together to obtain the gridded normalized rainfall as a whole, it was converted to obtain the final products in terms of the parameters of reversible empirical model. The uncertainty analysis revealed that the largest error comes from the griddization procedure, it reaches 50-mm/day in the remote mountainous area during the typhoon season; the second one is due to station data imputation, it reaches 15-mm/day in the foothill of nearby plains; the optimized statistical model produces the least error, only 5-mm/day at most in the mountainous area during the rainy season as well. The two errors mentioned above are attributed to the richness of station data, demonstrating that the development of any statistical schemes should still be rooted in the robustness of metadata. The established gridded dataset verified that 1.) the mid-summer drought phenomenon in July is mainly related to the reduction of rainy days rather than the rainfall intensity; 2.) the asymmetric circulation between the wet and dry phases of Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) and Quasi-Biweekly oscillation (QBWO) also results in an uncomparable rainfall variability over Taiwan: the positive rainfall anomaly during the wet phase is 3- to 5-fold of the negative anomaly during the dry phase, and the influence of QBWO (MJO) in all phases is larger (smaller) and tends to be consistent (inconsistent) island-wide; 3.) when a strong El Niño winter occurs before (after) 1976/77, the after-spring rainfall is deficient (abundant) in response to the weakened westerly jet (the enhanced northward moisture flow) at the upper troposphere (above warm waters) north (south) of Taiwan. Trend analysis showed that both rainfall intensity and occurrence are increasing for all the regions climatologically with a profound rainfall quantity during spring, Meiyu, typhoon and winter seasons. Nevertheless, the significant rainfall occurrence in Meiyu season appears decreasing and fastens in recent years. These tendencies will complicate the regulation/control of regional water resources, especially for the phase-II rice-transplanting over the western plains.

参考文献 ( 64 ) 〈TOP〉

洪致文(2012)。台湾降雨指数(TRI)的建立与其分析应用。地理学报，67，73-96。
连结：
游保杉,杨道昌(1992)。3参数极端值分布於水文频率分析之应用。台湾水利，40(2)，36-45。
连结：
黄燕仪,翁叔平(2015)。采用广义极值分布对马来半岛极端降雨进行统计模拟。地理研究，63，33-53。
连结：
Abatzoglou, JT(2013).Development of gridded surface meteorological data for ecological applications and modeling.International Journal of Climatology,33,121-131.
Chandler, RE,Wheater, HS(2002).Analysis of rainfall variability using generalized linear models: a case study from the west of Ireland.Water Resources Research,38,1192-1202.

被引用文献 ( 2 ) 〈TOP〉

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